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2500名海军陆战队奔赴中东!美军或酝酿更高风险行动,特朗普仍未拍板是否夺取伊朗核材料

FX1682026年3月18日 21:09
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FX168财经报社(北美)讯 随着美伊冲突持续升级,美国总统特朗普是否进一步扩大军事行动,正成为市场与外交层面最受关注的焦点。多家媒体最新披露,特朗普尚未决定是否派遣美军进入伊朗境内,夺取该国高浓缩铀等核材料;与此同时,美方正向中东增派约2500名海军陆战队,外界普遍认为,这意味着美国已在为更复杂、风险更高的下一阶段行动做准备。

据CBS News报道,特朗普私下曾对身边人士表示,自己“还有很多决定要做”。五角大楼目前已为总统准备了多个后续选项,其中包括是否采取更危险的地面行动,以获取伊朗核设施中的相关核材料。#伊朗危机追踪#

(来源:CBS News)

去年夏天美军打击伊朗三处核设施后,国际原子能机构称,伊朗在袭击前拥有的大约400公斤高浓缩铀去向仍无法完全确认,这也让“是否夺取核材料”成为白宫内部的重要议题。国际原子能机构总干事格罗西则警告称,伊朗核计划分散且建设已久,单靠军事手段很难被彻底摧毁,冲突结束后,各方仍应重回外交谈判。

报道称,特朗普认为伊朗海空军战力已遭大幅削弱,但他对伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡布设水雷的能力依然十分担忧。按其判断,伊朗只需少数人员便可能干扰关键航道通行,而白宫眼下甚至无法完全确认伊朗当前的核心领导层架构。特朗普还曾公开表示,目前局势近乎“失控”或“无固定中心”的状态。

与此同时,CBC News报道称,美国正向中东部署约2500名海军陆战队,这是自2月28日美以对伊朗发动行动以来,首批正式增派到该地区的美军地面部队。分析人士认为,这支快速反应部队未来最可能的任务,是协助重开霍尔木兹海峡,包括控制靠近航道的小型岛屿、部署防空系统、配合海军护航以及实施更广泛的空中与网络支援。

(来源:CBC News)

霍尔木兹海峡局势之所以格外敏感,在于其承担着全球约五分之一的石油与液化天然气运输。一旦伊朗继续依靠无人机、反舰导弹、小型快艇或水雷袭扰航运,全球能源市场就将持续承压。CBS News提到,英国海事安全机构自本轮行动开始以来已收到至少15起袭击报告,多与“不明投射物”有关;而CBC援引专家观点称,即便美国投入海军、海军陆战队和航空力量联合作战,要想真正“安全、快速、持续”地恢复海峡通行,也绝非易事。

不过,美国当前的军事准备仍被一些分析人士认为不够充分。美国海军此前几年已逐步退役部分专门用于反水雷作战的舰艇,转而依赖装备反水雷任务模块的濒海战斗舰。CBS报道称,近期还有4艘已退役相关舰艇被运离中东,而美国海军目前没有让这些舰艇重新服役的计划。特朗普也因此公开向盟友施压,希望欧洲等国家派出扫雷舰协助打开霍尔木兹海峡,但到目前为止,主要盟友并未完全响应。英国首相斯塔默表示,英国将保护本国人员和驻地安全,但“不打算被卷入更广泛战争”;德国防长皮斯托里乌斯也明确称,德国不可能在所有地方介入一场“并非自己挑起的战争”。

从市场角度看,特朗普迟迟未就“是否派兵夺取核材料”作出决定,意味着中东局势的最大不确定性并未消除。若美军最终转向更深度地面介入,不仅将显著提高军事风险,也可能令霍尔木兹海峡危机进一步升级,进而推高原油运输成本、加剧能源供应担忧,并对全球风险资产形成新的冲击。相较之下,若白宫最终选择将重点放在海峡护航、反水雷与持续空袭,而非地面夺取核材料,则冲突外溢程度或许仍可控,但持续时间恐怕会被进一步拉长。

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