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资深交易员警告:预计将出现类似2008年的“严重”经济崩溃!

FX1682026年3月17日 03:35
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#高通胀/经济衰退#FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 资深交易员Todd Horwitz警告称,随着看似稳定的金融市场之下经济压力不断累积,美国经济可能正走向一次严重衰退,类似于2008年金融危机。

(截图来源:Finbold)

Horwitz在3月13日发布的David Lin采访中表示,近期数据显示,美国经济增长速度远低于预期,这正引发他的担忧。

值得注意的是,美国第四季度国内生产总值(GDP)年化增长率仅为0.7%,显著低于此前1.4%的初步估值,也远低于市场预期。

尽管数据表现疲弱,但市场几乎没有作出明显反应。对此,Horwitz表示,这反映现代市场的运作方式:大型机构会密切跟踪GDP、就业等数据背后的关键指标,因此在官方数据公布之前,很多信息其实已经被市场提前计入价格之中。

尽管市场表面上看起来仍然稳定,但这位交易员认为,更广泛的经济现实要令人担忧得多,尤其是对大多数美国人而言。

家庭财务压力上升

Horwitz表示,随着债务持续增加,家庭财务压力正在上升,许多消费者越来越依赖信用消费和延期付款融资来维持支出。

与此同时,抵押贷款违约依然令人担忧,借贷成本也居高不下。Horwitz还指出,经济的多个领域出现了过度建设的迹象,如果情况恶化,这可能会加剧金融压力。

他进一步警告称,由于过度杠杆化,银行体系可能相当脆弱,而这种情况在历史上往往会在经济下行期间放大金融冲击。

Horwitz表示:“我预计还会再次出现一次相当严重的崩溃。我预计会出现类似2008年的情况。我认为银行的杠杆过高。我认为美联储毫无作用。回头看看他们的降息周期,在过去两年里,他们已经降息了五次。”

他还指出,同期基准10年期美国国债收益率上涨了约200个基点,限制了预期中对消费者和借款人的纾困效果。

除了金融状况之外,劳动力市场的结构性变化也可能加剧经济压力。人工智能的日益普及正在逐步取代高薪的管理和专业岗位,而这些岗位一旦被自动化取代,可能很难再被重新占据。

Horwitz认为,综合以上因素,这些因素最终可能导致一场堪比2008年金融危机的严重经济衰退。

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