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别再只盯1970年代了!上世纪80年代“油轮战争”更像当前伊朗局势

FX1682026年3月14日 00:19
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FX168财经报社(北美)讯 随着美以对伊朗的军事行动进入近两周,市场对局势升级的担忧再度升温。国际油价重新逼近并站上三位数,美股则持续承压。多家机构认为,与其将当前局势简单类比为上世纪70年代石油危机,不如将目光转向上世纪80年代两伊战争期间的“油轮战争”——当时霍尔木兹海峡航运受阻、油价飙升、美国海军护航介入,而市场表现与当下更具可比性。#伊朗危机追踪#

自美国与以色列对伊朗发动军事行动以来,局势已持续接近两周,交易员的情绪也开始变得不安。经历最初几天的剧烈波动后,国际油价再次攀升至三位数水平,而标普500指数自冲突爆发以来已下跌约3%。

巴克莱由Emmanuel Cau领衔的策略师指出,目前市场情绪依然相对坚挺,普遍押注这场冲突将是短暂的。但如果霍尔木兹海峡关闭时间延长,且油价持续站稳每桶100美元上方,市场对于所谓“特朗普看跌期权”的信心可能将受到越来越大的冲击。所谓“特朗普看跌期权”,指的是市场相信特朗普政府可能通过政策手段为美股托底——在当前语境下,则意味着通过推动战争结束来稳定市场。

花旗由Dirk Willer领衔的全球宏观策略团队则试图从历史中寻找可参照的案例。他们回顾了过去五次石油危机后认为,市场直觉上往往会将当前局势与上世纪70年代相提并论,例如1973年的赎罪日战争或1979年的伊朗革命,但这两次事件其实并不完全适合作为当前局势的类比对象。

策略师们指出,当时国际油价长期处于被“钉住”的状态。价格管制通常会压制波动性,而一旦这种锚定被打破,被压抑的波动就会迅速释放,因为许多市场参与者此前都默认这种价格机制会持续,并据此制定商业计划。因此,在价格被固定的市场中,一旦锚被打破,其破坏力往往要强于一个本身就更灵活的市场环境中的价格调整。

除此之外,如今的美国已是能源净出口国,而全球经济对于石油的依赖程度也低于上世纪70年代,因此两者并不具备足够强的可比性。

相比之下,花旗认为,上世纪80年代两伊战争期间爆发的“油轮战争”可能更接近当前情形。那是霍尔木兹海峡上一次出现油轮运输严重受扰的阶段,期间海上运输量一度下降约20%,并促使美国海军实施护航行动。这一历史情境与当前局势的相似度显然更高。

从市场表现来看,这一历史参照也颇具启发意义。数据显示,油价曾在1987年7月一艘美国军舰触雷后见顶,而标普500指数在当时油价上涨过程中总体仍然录得上行,即便那个阶段也包括后来著名的“黑色星期一”股灾。

不过,花旗策略师在资产配置上仍保持谨慎。他们表示,在决定投入更多资金之前,市场波动必须先明显回落。值得注意的是,即便国际能源署主导了全球供应释放行动,油市反应也没有出现更积极的改善,这本身就说明市场对供应风险仍高度敏感。

与战前相比,全球投资者目前最明显的仓位调整之一,是降低了对韩国Kospi指数和英国富时100指数的超配。同时,投资者对纳斯达克指数的低配程度有所收窄,而对美国小盘股罗素2000指数则转向更深度低配。

花旗认为,这种仓位变化在逻辑上是合理的,因为它反映出此前几个季度“市场广度扩张交易”的回撤。换言之,投资者正在从更广泛的风险资产配置,重新收缩回相对更核心、更具韧性的市场板块。

基于此,花旗当前的建议仍是维持对美股的超配立场,但不再超配美国小盘股。

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