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诺奖得主骇人警告:对伊战争恐引爆“经济末日四骑士”,70年代“滞胀噩梦”要重演?

FX1682026年3月13日 01:34
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FX168财经报社(北美)讯 诺贝尔经济学奖得主约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨(Joseph Stiglitz)对美国对伊朗“史诗怒火”军事行动能否实现既定目标持悲观态度,并警告这场战争可能带来严重经济后果。在他看来,即便伊朗现政权最终垮台,结果也更可能是类似利比亚或伊拉克式的碎片化与混乱,而非一个稳定的民主国家,这将使霍尔木兹海峡面临长期性扰动风险。

斯蒂格利茨表示,这场针对伊朗的战争可能释放出经济层面的“四骑士”——“更高的油价、更高的食品价格、经济下行以及混乱”,“负面影响是非常明确的”。

这位2001年诺贝尔经济学奖得主、哥伦比亚大学教授,长期以来以偏左的政策立场著称,也一直公开批评现任美国政府。在本周三(3月11日)发布、由Jack Farley主持的播客节目《Monetary Matters》采访中,斯蒂格利茨再次加码对美国推动伊朗政权更迭战争的批评。

他直言:“特朗普总统一年前用反复无常的关税向全球经济体系扔下了一枚手榴弹。现在,他又用这场无端的伊朗战争扔下了另一枚手榴弹。”

谈及这场不到两周前爆发的战争所带来的经济影响时,斯蒂格利茨指出,国际油价已飙升至100美元/桶上方,汽油价格在过去一周上涨17%;与此同时,航运受阻推高化肥成本,也将进一步抬升食品价格。他还批评称,特朗普政府此前未能充分补充战略石油储备,因此即便现在释放储备,也难以真正产生足够效果。

布伦特原油周三一度升至101美元/桶上方,随后有所回落。周四,布伦特原油期货收报100.46美元/桶,上涨8.48美元,涨幅9.22%。布伦特原油期货结算价自2022年8月以来首次突破100美元/桶。

斯蒂格利茨最担心的问题,是美国经济正面临滞胀风险。他表示:“我们面对的是滞胀风险——关税和战争推高价格,而经济增长却在放缓。”他并援引2月份非农就业减少9.2万人的数据,作为经济活动疲弱的证据。

他还将当前局势与1973年石油危机相提并论,指出美国经济至今仍未完全摆脱疫情后高通胀带来的后遗症。在他看来,通胀回落进程本就因关税而放慢,如今这场战争又再次强化了“通胀心理”。

不过,滞胀并非斯蒂格利茨唯一的担忧。他同时认为,市场中“存在相当大的概率出现AI泡沫”,而一旦泡沫破裂,将带来显著的宏观经济后果。

他担心的不只是资产泡沫本身,也包括人工智能对劳动力市场的冲击。斯蒂格利茨指出,如果没有有效机制帮助劳动者转向新的就业岗位,“宏观经济就无法良好运转,以至于这些AI企业本身都未必能够实现盈利”。

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