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警报接连响起!机构警告私募信贷违约率或翻倍,知名经济学家:“经典传染”风险正在酝酿

FX1682026年3月12日 21:45
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FX168财经报社(北美)讯 私募信贷市场正面临新一轮压力测试。英国《金融时报》周四(3月12日)报道称,Partners Group董事长Steffen Meister警告,随着人工智能(AI)重塑企业经营格局,未来几年私募信贷违约率可能显著上升,甚至有翻倍风险。与此同时,知名经济学家Mohamed El-Erian也发出警告称,围绕私募信贷流动性和赎回限制的连串消息,显示一种“经典传染现象”可能正在形成。

Meister在接受《金融时报》采访时表示,人工智能带来的冲击可能使企业表现进一步分化,一部分公司将显著受益,另一部分公司则可能明显掉队,而这种分化对私募信贷的打击可能比私募股权更大。原因在于,私募信贷出借人更多承受下行风险,却未必能充分享受企业转型成功所带来的上行回报。

他指出,过去十年私募信贷年均违约率约为2.6%,但未来几年这一水平可能上升。Meister认为,过去违约率“过低”,使得不少放贷机构习惯于通过分散化贷款组合并叠加杠杆来提升收益,但在AI冲击企业基本面的背景下,这一模式可能面临更大考验。

市场对这一规模约2万亿美元的私募信贷行业的审视,近月来明显升温。投资者的担忧主要集中在两个方面:一是信用质量走弱,二是不少放贷机构对软件公司敞口较大,而这些公司的商业模式可能正是最容易受到AI颠覆的领域之一。摩根大通近期也下调了部分面向私募信贷基金贷款的估值,市场报道称,相关动作与软件行业的波动及AI扰动风险有关。

近来,多起违约和破产案例也进一步放大了市场焦虑。《金融时报》提到,去年汽车零部件制造商First Brands以及次级贷款机构Tricolor的破产,均加剧了投资者对私募信贷资产质量的担忧。与此同时,面向零售投资者的私募信贷基金赎回压力持续上升,Blue Owl、BlackRock和Blackstone等机构近期都曾面临赎回申请激增或限制提款的情况。

El-Erian则把这种局面形容为可能演变成“经典传染现象”。他表示,若投资者在私募信贷产品中无法卖出自己真正想卖的资产,就可能被迫抛售其他流动性更好的健康资产,以筹集现金。他把这种情况称为“ATM情景”,即某些本身基本面健康、甚至属于不同资产类别的基金,也可能因为投资者需要现金而沦为被出售的对象。

他特别提到,摩根士丹利和Cliffwater最近对部分私募信贷基金设置提款限制,这类消息不断出现,会进一步提高市场对连锁反应的警惕。El-Erian此前还曾把Blue Owl限制赎回的事件比作“煤矿里的金丝雀”,认为这让人联想到2007年法国巴黎银行冻结部分证券化债务基金后,市场逐步滑向2008年金融危机前夜的过程。

值得注意的是,当前中东局势升级和油价飙升,某种程度上反而分散了市场对私募信贷风险的注意力。Business Insider援引报道指出,高盛高管Kunal Shah近期甚至表示,一些私募信贷客户“很高兴”伊朗战争提供了一个“分散注意力的题材”,使市场暂时减少了对AI敞口问题的聚焦。El-Erian也认为,私募信贷压力、AI高投入风险与中东冲突正在共同构成市场潜在不稳定源。

整体来看,私募信贷市场当前面临的已不只是单一违约风险,而是AI重估企业信用、基金流动性承压、赎回限制增多以及地缘政治冲击叠加后的复杂局面。若未来违约率继续抬升,而流动性管理又不能有效跟上,这一曾被视为传统银行贷款替代者的重要市场,可能将迎来更严峻的信心考验。

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