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伊朗突传大消息!路透独家:美国情报部门认为伊朗政府不存在垮台风险

FX1682026年3月12日 01:21
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#伊朗危机追踪#FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 英国路透社周三(3月11日)发布独家报道称,据三位知情人士透露,美国情报显示,在美国和以色列近两周持续不断的轰炸之后,伊朗领导层整体上仍然基本完整,短期内并不存在垮台风险。

(截图来源:路透社)

其中一位消息人士表示,大量情报报告给出了“一致的分析”,即伊朗政权“并未面临崩溃危险”。由于涉及美国情报评估,所有消息人士均要求匿名。

该消息人士称,最新一份报告是在最近几天内完成的。

路透社称,随着油价飙升引发的政治压力不断加大,美国总统特朗普(Donald Trump)已暗示,他将“很快”结束这场自2003年以来美国规模最大的军事行动。

但如果伊朗强硬派领导人依然牢牢掌权,要找到一种可接受的结束战争方式,可能会相当困难。

尽管最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊(Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)已于2月28日——也就是美以发动打击的第一天——遇袭身亡,但这些情报报告凸显出伊朗神权领导层的凝聚力。

一位以色列高级官员告诉路透社,以色列官员在闭门讨论中也承认,战争是否会导致伊朗神权政府垮台,仍然没有把握。

消息人士强调,当前地面局势仍在变化之中,伊朗国内局势的发展也可能发生改变。

针对上述消息,美国国家情报总监办公室和中央情报局均拒绝置评。

白宫未立即回应置评请求。

目标转变

自发动这场战争以来,美国和以色列已打击了伊朗一系列目标,包括防空系统、核设施以及高级领导层成员。

特朗普政府对这场战争给出的理由并不一致。特朗普在宣布美军行动开始时曾呼吁伊朗民众“接管你们的政府”,但其高级助手此后否认此次行动的目标是推翻伊朗领导层。

除哈梅内伊外,袭击还造成数十名高级官员和一些伊斯兰革命卫队最高级别指挥官死亡。伊斯兰革命卫队是一支精锐准军事力量,掌控着伊朗经济的很大一部分。

不过,美国情报报告显示,伊斯兰革命卫队以及在哈梅内伊死后接掌权力的临时领导层,仍然控制着这个国家。

由资深什叶派教士组成的专家会议本周早些时候宣布,哈梅内伊之子穆杰塔巴(Mojtaba)为新任最高领袖。

第四位知情人士表示,以色列无意让前政府的任何残余力量继续完整保留下来。

目前尚不清楚当前这场美以军事行动将如何推翻伊朗政府。

该消息人士称,这可能需要发动地面进攻,从而让伊朗国内民众能够安全地走上街头抗议。

特朗普政府尚未排除向伊朗派遣美军的可能性。

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