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经济学家警告:股市比1979年更容易受到石油危机的影响

FX1682026年3月10日 05:49
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FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 市场分析师兼应用经济学教授史蒂夫·汉克(Steve Hanke)探讨了不断上涨的油价和日益紧张的中东局势,指出这可能通过金融市场引发更广泛的经济冲击。

(截图来源:Finbold)

汉克在3月8日播出的《大卫·林报告》(The David Lin Report)节目中警告称,过高的股票估值,即所谓的“股市泡沫”,使得全球经济比上世纪70年代末的石油危机时期更加脆弱。

更确切地说,1979年,股市的市盈率约为8倍。而如今,估值已接近29倍。这意味着,如果市场情绪逆转,潜在的下跌空间将更大。也就是说,如果股价急剧下跌,那些受益于资产价值上涨的家庭可能会减少支出。

汉克说:“股市遭受重创,你的财富也会缩水。你会开始勒紧裤腰带,缩减开支。”

不过,一线希望在于,世界不太可能再次面临20世纪70年代的石油危机,因为全球经济现在对石油的依赖程度较低,供应也更加多元化。

油价上涨是否意味着通货膨胀?

汉克将当前情况与近五十年前进行比较,指出如今中东石油产量在全球总产量中所占份额较小。他特别指出,1978年伊朗石油产量约占全球供应量的8%至8.5%,而如今这一比例接近5%。

与此同时,美国在全球石油产量中的份额也有所增长,从1978年的约15.6%增至近19%,从而降低对外国供应的依赖。此外,能源效率也大幅提升。例如,单位GDP的石油消耗量已从20世纪70年代末的约1.5%大幅下降至如今的约0.4%。

因此,此次讨论的关键结论是通货膨胀的可能性降低。汉克表示,通货膨胀始终是一种货币现象,而且在任何地方都是如此。油价上涨主要导致相对价格变动,而非普遍通货膨胀,只有当各国央行扩大货币供应量以应对冲击时,才会出现普遍通货膨胀。

汉克说:“通货膨胀无论何时何地都是一种货币现象。你必须关注货币供应量的状况,这才是通货膨胀背后的根本原因。”

受访者以日本为例。具体来说,在1973年石油危机期间,日本央行增加货币供应量,从而加剧通货膨胀。然而,在20世纪70年代末的危机中,日本央行采取更为克制的措施,没有像当时那样大幅扩张流动性。因此,它显著抑制了整体通胀压力。

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