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事关日本央行加息前景,彭博爆料重要消息!伊朗冲突下,官员们如何考量?

FX1682026年3月6日 05:52
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#日本央行动态#FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 美国彭博社周四(3月5日)报道称,据知情人士透露,日本央行官员仍计划加息,并且不排除在4月份加息的可能性,同时他们持续关注中东紧张局势对日本经济的影响。

(截图来源:彭博社)

知情人士称,尽管官员们认为截至3月19日结束的政策会议上加息的可能性很小,但到目前为止,他们尚未改变若经济前景按预期发展则继续加息的立场。

知情人士表示,官员们认为冲突持续的时间是评估日本经济前景风险及利率走势的关键变量。

他们还表示,政策决定将继续按每次会议逐案做出,4月份加息并非不可能。眼下,官员们专注于评估涉及伊朗的冲突将如何影响国内外经济状况以及金融市场。

知情人士表示,日本央行将密切关注由油价上涨带来的通胀上行风险,尤其是考虑到日本企业现在更愿意将成本上涨转嫁给客户。如果中东紧张局势持续导致原油价格长期维持高位,这可能会推高通胀预期,并强化价格上涨势头。

知情人士称,在美国和以色列上周末对伊朗发动攻击之前,日本经济和通胀总体上发展情况与日本央行的预测大致一致。

该报道发布后,日元兑美元一度小幅升至156.98,随后回吐部分涨幅。交易员认为,日本央行本月将基准借款利率从0.75%上调的概率约为5%。根据周四隔夜掉期市场的定价,如果将4月份的会议也考虑在内,上调借贷成本的可能性将飙升至约65%。

日本央行行长植田和男(Kazuo Ueda)周三在国会发言中强调,需要密切关注中东局势。他表示,这场冲突可能通过油价上涨等渠道,对日本经济造成严重冲击。

不过,植田和男并未像去年4月美国宣布大规模关税时那样提到高度不确定性。这表明,日本央行并未暂停所有政策,等待局势更加明朗。

日元兑美元仍相对接近160关口,许多分析师认为这一水平可能触发政府的货币干预。日元走弱通过提高进口成本加剧了通胀压力,并在推动日本通胀上行中发挥了关键作用。

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