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诺奖得主克鲁格曼警告:伊朗战争或成“最后一根稻草” 美国经济正滑向危险边缘

FX1682026年3月5日 21:28
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FX168财经报社(北美)讯 伊朗战争本周搅动全球市场,而诺贝尔经济学奖得主、经济学家保罗·克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)认为,其影响最终可能远比当前市场反应更为深远。#伊朗危机追踪#

克鲁格曼近期对美国经济并不乐观,主要原因在于他认为特朗普总统的关税政策正在带来负面冲击。但随着军事冲突升级,他警告称,美国经济可能面临更严重的后果。

克鲁格曼在近期发表于Substack的文章中指出,多重因素使不确定性高企,同时战争可能正在加速经济下行。

“我们的经济已经承受着许多压力,而这场冲突可能成为压垮骆驼的最后一根稻草——而且战争持续时间越长,这根稻草就会变得越沉重,”他说。

在克鲁格曼看来,冲突迅速解决的可能性正在下降。他认为,导致市场走弱的高度不确定性很可能持续存在,因为特朗普政府并未给出清晰的计划,也没有明确说明他们预期战争将持续多久。

克鲁格曼还指出,随着战事拖延,由伊朗主要掌控的全球关键石油运输通道——霍尔木兹海峡——可能会被关闭数周,从而令油价长期维持在高位。

他表示,在既有经济压力之上,更高的油价以及高昂的战争成本,可能共同构成一个“危险的经济场景”。他特别提到人工智能(AI)是系统中已在发酵的风险之一,而当市场正为中东新一轮战争感到不安时,这些风险更容易被放大。

“关于AI的担忧广泛存在——既担心它是一场可能破裂的泡沫,也担心它会推动就业流失,”克鲁格曼说。“而且很多人——包括我——都在担忧金融稳定:从很多方面看,我们又重新制造了那种让2008年危机成为可能的‘影子银行’风险。

此外,克鲁格曼还强调,关税的负面影响以及更严格的移民政策,也是当前经济的重要压力点。他的观点与另一位经济学家马克·赞迪(Mark Zandi)相近,后者同样点名这些因素可能将美国推向衰退。

“我们又增加了一层全新的巨大不确定性,”克鲁格曼说。“请记住,这甚至不是一场‘选择的战争’,而更像是一场‘任性而为的战争’,几乎完全缺乏规划。”

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