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伊朗冲突对日本影响恐重大!分析师:油价升至这一区间将危及高市早苗议程

FX1682026年3月2日 02:56
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FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 据机构Monex Group分析师Jesper Koll称,油价上涨可能给日本带来新一轮通胀冲击,使日本首相高市早苗(Sanae Takaichi)为缓解生活成本压力所做的努力更加复杂。

(截图来源:彭博社)

Koll在周一(3月2日)接受彭博电视采访时表示,如果未来几个月原油价格在100至120美元/桶区间交易,这将构成一次“供给冲击”,可能使日本消费者通胀率增加接近0.5个百分点。

Koll表示,这将使高市早苗的施政议程面临风险,“因为她向日本民众承诺会让能源和食品通胀降下来”。

彭博经济研究(Bloomberg Economics)估计,若伊朗冲突升级、更多石油基础设施遭到打击且霍尔木兹海峡被关闭,原油价格可能升至108美元/桶。

由于日本是重要的原油净进口国,燃料成本上升将扩大日本的贸易逆差,并放大输入性通胀,从而可能进一步加剧对本已疲软的日元的压力。

周一亚洲交易时段,国际原油期货价格飙升,市场参与者担心美伊之间的战争可能失控,并导致重大供应中断。

美国原油期货亚市盘初飙升逾7%,报72.10美元/桶。全球基准布伦特原油飙升约8%,至78.78美元/桶。

过去三个月,日元兑美元下跌约0.4%,在十国集团(G10)货币中表现最差。

尽管高市早苗在上个月众议院选举中大获全胜,一度短暂提振日元,但随后随着有关她对进一步加息持谨慎态度的报道传出,以及她提名了两名偏鸽派的日本央行董事会成员,日元再次承压。

(截图来源:彭博社)

油价推动的物价飙升也将令日本央行的政策路径更加复杂。Koll表示,这类冲击“意味着日本央行加息实际上是错误的政策举措”。他认为,与其加息,不如向家庭提供额外的财政支持,但此举也可能为市场带来更多不确定性。

市场已经在讨论,随着日本央行推进政策正常化,该行是否会面临更大的政治压力,尽管日本央行行长植田和男(Kazuo Ueda)似乎仍致力于推动这一进程。

隔夜指数掉期(OIS)显示,日本央行到4月会议加息的概率超过60%,并且到7月加息25个基点已被市场完全计价。

与此同时,Koll表示,美元前景依然建设性,而更高的油价可能会强化这一趋势。他称,日本投资者预计将继续“把庞大的经常账户顺差循环用于购买全球资产,尤其是美国资产”。

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