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《黑天鹅》作者警告软件公司破产风险加剧,市场波动恐加大

FX1682026年2月24日 06:12
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FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 《黑天鹅》(The Black Swan)一书作者纳西姆·塔勒布(Nassim Taleb)对投资者发出警告:随着由人工智能(AI)驱动的市场反弹进入一个更加脆弱的阶段,准备迎接波动加剧和软件行业的潜在破产。

(截图来源:彭博社)

塔勒布认为,市场低估了结构性风险,同时高估了当前人工智能领军企业的持久性。他警告说,尽管人工智能将带来巨额利润,但历史表明,早期的先行者往往会被取代。

塔勒布在迈阿密的一个由Universa Investments主办的SeaFair活动期间接受采访时表示:“有人会在人工智能领域赚很多钱,但这并不意味着今天那些在人工智能交易中占主导地位的公司会是赢家。”

他表示,随着技术的不稳定性、激烈的竞争和不断变化的地缘政治重塑行业,软件领域部分公司破产的情况可能会发生。

美股标普500指数周一下跌约1%,这是一系列抛售的最新一次,因为投资者正在应对关税不确定性以及两种相互对立的叙事,导致人工智能焦虑。一方面,投资者担心快速发展的人工智能工具将扰乱提供基于订阅服务的软件公司,因为编程变得更加容易。与此同时,正在竞相开发和建设人工智能基础设施的科技巨头们已开始一场危险的借贷狂潮,这可能需要多年才能看到回报。

塔勒布指出,在过去几年里,大部分股市反弹是由一小部分与人工智能相关的股票推动的,如果领导地位发生变化,更广泛的指数将变得脆弱。

塔勒布说:“各行业的尾部风险在结构上被低估了,风险不是一次小幅调整,而是一次大幅回撤。”

塔勒布因其对过去金融危机的预测而声名鹊起。

尽管如此,塔勒布预计短期内市场反弹可能会继续。他表示,更大的问题是潜在下行的规模。

他说:“你总是需要对冲。这些回撤并不是容易预测的。”

塔勒布担任Universa Investments的杰出科学顾问,该公司专注于尾部风险对冲策略,旨在在市场危机中获得不成比例的利润。去年,该公司实现了超过100%的年均资本回报。

塔勒布表示,结构性转变正在发生,尤其是在黄金领域。尽管受人工智能贸易可持续性担忧和地缘政治紧张局势加剧的影响,股市涨跌互现,但自去年10月以来,黄金价格已飙升约30%。

他指出,美国持续的财政赤字以及对制裁政策可能导致美元被武器化的担忧,都是造成市场动荡的原因。

塔勒布说:“美国作为储备货币的地位正在逐渐丧失。如果人们认为资产可能被冻结或没收,那么他们用美元储存财富的动力就会降低。”

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