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小心日本飞出“黑天鹅”!前日银委员:若出现这一幕 日本央行恐在3月加息

FX1682026年2月24日 05:36
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#日本央行动态#FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 英国路透社周一(2月23日)报道称,日本央行前审议委员樱井诚(Makoto Sakurai)在接受路透社采访时表示,如果日元在预计于本月举行的美日峰会前再度走弱,日本央行最早可能在3月加息。

(截图来源:路透社)

日本首相高市早苗(Sanae Takaichi)预计将在3月18日至19日日本央行下一次政策会议前后访问华盛顿,与美国总统特朗普(Donald Trump)会晤。

樱井诚上周五在采访中表示,高市早苗可能会寻求日本央行协助遏制日元贬值,因为美国上个月进行汇率“询价”以支撑日元的举动,显示华盛顿倾向于让日元兑美元走强。

与现任政策制定者保持密切联系的樱井诚表示:“汇市干预只能在短期内对抗抛售日元的压力。应对日元疲软的最佳方式,是日本央行提高利率。”

樱井诚表示,日元若再度大幅走弱,将通过推高进口成本抬升通胀,并抵消政府燃料补贴带来的一部分抑制通胀作用。

他补充称,如果需要应对日元的急剧下跌,日本央行可以援引企业与工会年度春季薪资谈判中工资有望强劲增长的前景,来为最早在3月加息提供理由。

樱井诚说:“从逻辑上看,等到4月再行动更合理,但这也要看日元走势,日本央行仍有可能在3月加息。”

樱井诚曾于2016年至2021年担任日本央行政策委员会委员,任内大致处于日本央行开始将政策重心从大规模资产购买,转向通过引入收益率曲线控制(YCC)来管理长期利率的时期。

他表示,日本央行可能需要在2026年和2027年各加息两次,才能将目前为0.75%的政策利率提高至1.75%。这一水平很可能是既不会让经济降温、也不会令其过热的“中性利率”。

樱井诚指出,假如加息步伐过快,可能会通过推高中小企业破产数量、并损害地方银行的资产负债表,从而冲击日本的银行体系。

日本央行于2024年结束长达十年的大规模刺激计划,并多次加息,包括去年12月将短期政策利率上调至30年来的最高点0.75%。

在通胀率已连续近四年高于日本央行2%目标的背景下,行长植田和男(Kazuo Ueda)已释放信号称,若日本央行的经济预测得以实现,央行已准备好继续加息。

路透社调查显示,多数受访经济学家预计日本央行将在6月底前将利率上调至1%;而市场定价显示,到4月加息的概率约为70%。

日本央行下次会议将于3月18日至19日举行。其理事会随后将于4月27日至28日召开会议,届时还将发布新的季度经济增长和通胀预测。

日元疲软已成为日本决策者面临的政治难题,因为它推高了进口燃料和食品价格,损害了家庭和零售商的利益。

自去年10月被视为财政与货币政策“鸽派”的高市早苗出任日本首相以来,日元兑美元已下跌约8%,并在1月跌至18个月低点1美元兑159.45。

尽管日元随后收复部分失地,但目前仍徘徊在约1美元兑155日元附近,远低于高市早苗上台前约147的水平。

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