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经济学家警告:美国正处在比2008年危机“更大规模市场崩盘”的边缘!

FX1682026年2月2日 05:48
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FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 美国知名财经网站Finbold周日(2月1日)报道称,经济学家彼得·希夫(Peter Schiff)警告称,美国正走向一场远比2008年金融危机更为严重的经济崩溃。

(截图来源:Finbold)

这位知名黄金多头在接受大卫·林(David Lin)采访时表示,这轮下行可能源于贵金属价格的剧烈波动、全球货币格局的变化,以及美元与美国主权债务脆弱性不断上升。

希夫指出,近期黄金和白银的上涨,表明市场对现行货币体系的信心正在流失:各国央行正在降低对美元的配置、同时增加黄金储备。他认为,这反映出市场正在向一种新的货币秩序重新定价——在这种秩序下,黄金重新成为关键储备资产,从而削弱美元长期以来的主导地位。

与此同时,他警告称,一旦美元失去储备货币地位,将对美国经济造成重大打击——在他看来,美国长期依赖这种“过度特权”来维持贸易逆差、大规模举债,以及以信贷驱动的增长。

随着这些失衡状况逐步逆转,希夫预计美国的经济结构将不堪重负、在自身压力下崩塌。

“美国独有”的经济崩盘

希夫认为,与迅速蔓延至全球市场的2008年危机不同,即将到来的衰退将主要集中在美国。他将其形容为一场美元与主权债务危机,并称虽然美国的生活水平将大幅下滑,但其他地区反而可能从中受益。

希夫表示 :“这将是一场大规模的经济崩溃,对美国而言,其规模将远远大于2008年金融危机。这不会是全球性的,而是一场美国的危机——一场美元危机与美国主权债务危机。对世界其他地区来说,这反而是利好,因为美国人失去的购买力,将由世界其他地区获得。”

这位经济学家称,随着美国购买力走弱,世界其他地区将能够保留更多自身的产出,把资本更多投入本国,在本土进行投资,并消费更多本国产品,最终推动美国之外地区的生活水平提高。

此外,希夫警告称,许多投资者仍未为此做好准备。他认为,如果美元走弱、债务压力加剧,大量股票和债券投资组合的实际价值可能会遭受重大损失。

他指出,转向贵金属的趋势不再局限于外国央行,私人投资者也开始购入黄金和白银,他认为这一趋势仍处于早期阶段。

总体而言,希夫的展望表明,全球经济体系将发生深刻的再平衡,而美国将面临深刻而痛苦的调整。

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