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美国非农就业报告惊现重大修正!“美联储传声筒”:确实没那么强劲……

FX1682024年8月22日 04:30
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FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 被称为“美联储传声筒”的《华尔街日报》记者Nick Timiraos表示,美国就业增长确实不如此前报道的那么强劲。美国劳工统计局(BLS)公布了截至3月的过去一年非农就业初步修正数据,报告显示,从2022年4月到2024年3月的12个月期间,美国经济创造的就业岗位比最初报告的少了81.8万个。

Nick在谈到美国非农就业数据的重大修正时,称这将使每月工资增长(最初为+246K)平均每月减少68K。这意味着2024年3月的就业增长率为+1.4%,而之前报告的为+1.9%。就业水平的这一修订为-0.5%,是自2009年以来最大的一次。

(来源:Twitter)

作为对非农就业数据的初步年度基准修正的一部分,劳工统计局表示,实际的就业增长比最初报告的290万减少了近30%,修正后的总就业岗位水平下降了0.5%,是自2009年以来最大的降幅。

尽管这些数字每月都会常规修订,但美国劳工统计局每年在获得季度就业与工资普查结果后会进行更大范围的修订。

华尔街一直在等待这些修订数据,许多经济学家预计最初报告的数字会有大幅下调。即使在修订后,该期间的就业创造仍超过200万,但报告可能表明,劳动力市场并不像之前劳工统计局报告的那样强劲。这可能进一步推动美联储开始降低利率。

修订内容表明,劳动力市场的放缓开始得比原先预期的要早得多。直到本月初,市场和经济学家才因7月份的就业报告而感到担忧。这份报告引发了警报,因为招聘步伐疲软,失业率连续第四个月上升,但其他指标如失业救济申请和职位空缺显示出经济放缓的迹象更为温和。

这些数据有可能影响美联储主席鲍威尔本周五在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会讲话的基调。基准修订每年都会进行,但由于市场和美联储观察家特别关注任何劳动力市场可能比原先报告更快降温的迹象,今年的修订受到了特别的关注。

非农修正数据出台后,美股三大指数剧烈波动。

展望后市,鉴于7月和9月会议的时间安排,许多投资者认为即将举行的杰克逊霍尔讲话更为关键。鲍威尔的讲话预计将结合最新的经济数据,为美联储的政策方向提供更具时效性和前瞻性的视角。由于市场已经预期美联储将在9月降息25个基点,鲍威尔的讲话可能会巩固或挑战这些预期。

尽管7月份的会议纪要将为美联储的政策思路提供一些历史背景,但它们不太可能带来任何意外结果,或为下一次利率调整提供明确的指引。美联储预计将重申其以数据为主导的政策方针,但如果没有最新数据的帮助,会议纪要可能不会对市场预期产生重大影响。

随着美联储9月会议临近,届时美联储将获得更全面的数据,包括8月份就业报告和消费者物价指数(CPI)数据,7月份会议纪要可能被视为一种形式。预计真正的市场动态见解将来自鲍威尔的杰克逊霍尔讲话和9月初的数据发布,这些对于美联储的决定至关重要。

总而言之,虽然美联储会议纪要将被分析以寻找央行倾向的任何线索,但投资者真正的焦点将是周五的杰克逊霍尔研讨会,鲍威尔可能会在会上为美联储的下一步行动提供更多可行的指导。

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