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美联储会议纪要:政策制定者强烈倾向于9月降息

FX1682024年8月21日 18:38
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FX168财经报社(北美)讯 #美联储政策会议#周三(8月21日),美联储公布的会议纪要显示,政策制定者在上月的会议上对9月降息表现出强烈倾向,甚至有几位官员愿意立即采取行动降低借贷成本。

虽然7月的FOMC会议维持了利率不变,但为9月17-18日的政策会议上降息打开了大门。纪要指出,绝大多数政策制定者认为,如果经济数据继续与预期相符,那么在下一次会议上放松货币政策可能是适当的选择。他们还提到,当前的利率水平具有一定的限制性,一些官员认为,在通胀压力持续缓解的情况下,维持当前利率将加大对经济活动的拖累。

值得注意的是,周三早些时候,美国劳工统计局对2023年4月至2024年3月的非农就业人数进行了初步修订,结果显示增幅可能被夸大了80多万,这为市场带来了额外的不确定性。

会议纪要进一步显示,尽管所有官员在7月会议上同意保持利率不变,但几位与会者指出,近期的通胀进展和失业率的上升为当时降息25个基点提供了合理的依据。这些官员认为,政策放松过晚或力度不足可能会对经济活动和就业产生不利影响。

此外,官员们对2024年下半年经济增长的预期进行了下调,主要由于劳动力市场的表现弱于预期。许多与会者表示,放松政策的时机和力度需要谨慎平衡,以免对经济造成过度损害。他们观察到,实现美联储2%通胀目标的进展已经有明显迹象,并且预计这种趋势将继续推动未来几个月的通胀下降。

会议纪要公布后,市场迅速作出反应。现货黄金价格短线上涨5美元至每盎司2514.20美元,白银价格也走高至29.57美元/盎司。同时,美国国债收益率继续上升,这表明市场对美联储未来政策走向的高度关注。

尽管纪要显示美联储内部对降息的呼声越来越高,但部分官员对劳动力市场的前景表示担忧。7月份的非农就业报告显示,新增就业岗位仅为11.4万个,失业率上升至4.3%,这加剧了对经济放缓的担忧。与此同时,美国劳工部的数据显示,失业救济申请数量飙升,这进一步凸显了劳动力市场的压力。

尽管如此,最新发布的经济数据也表明,失业救济申请数量已回落至正常水平,零售销售数据表现优于预期,这缓解了部分消费者支出方面的担忧。然而,随着劳动力市场的进一步压力,交易员普遍预期美联储将在9月份的政策会议上启动降息行动,以应对经济增长放缓的风险。

总的来说,会议纪要显示,美联储官员在权衡通胀目标与经济增长之间的平衡时,面临艰难的抉择。他们普遍希望通过降息来应对未来的经济挑战,但具体的政策路径仍将取决于未来的经济数据和市场表现。

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