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亚洲汇市巨震!彭博社:正上演一场“金发姑娘”经典政策场景……

FX1682024年8月19日 06:53
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FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 由于对美国经济衰退的担忧逐渐消退、对美联储9月鸽派降息的预期,以及国内经济形势的改善,提振了亚洲地区的市场人气,亚洲货币上涨至7个月来的最高水平。马来西亚林吉特涨幅尤为明显,因全球资金流入股市和经济增长预期而走高。

彭博亚洲美元指数周一(8月19日)一度上涨 0.6%,达到1月份以来的最高水平。韩元和马来西亚林吉特因经济增长前景乐观而领涨该地区,泰铢则因地缘紧张局势缓和而上涨。

华侨银行外汇策略师Christopher Wong表示:“这就像一个‘金发姑娘’(Goldilocks)情景,对美国经济衰退的担忧逐渐消退,而该地区的增长势头依然温和。在发达市场央行主要采取宽松政策的背景下,亚洲(日本除外)货币仍有反弹空间。”

(来源:Bloomberg)

美元/林吉特一度走跌1.5%至4.3678,为2023年2月以来最低水平。

上周五,马来西亚公布第二季国内生产总值(GDP)较上年同期增长强于预期,而全球基金向该国股市注入的资金为6月以来最多。

巴东丹·西那瓦在议会中赢得足够多的选票,成为下一任泰国总理后,美元/泰铢汇率跌至34.409,为自1月份以来的最低水平。

彭博社指出,尽管她的任命有助于平息人们对其前任被宪法法院罢免后长期政治真空的担忧,但有报道称新政府可能会取消140亿美元的数字现金发放计划,因此货币未来的道路可能会更加坎坷。由于新总理此前对泰国央行的批评,新政府与泰国央行之间的关系也将再次成为焦点。

高盛集团经济学家上周末将美国明年陷入经济衰退的可能性从25%下调至20%,理由是上周公布的美国零售销售和失业救济申请数据好于预期。他们还表示,他们“更有信心”美联储将在9月份的政策会议上降息25个基点。

缓解对世界最大经济体衰退的担忧对亚洲出口导向型国家来说是一个利好。韩元上涨1.5%至1331.35,创下3月份以来最高水平。

菲律宾比索上涨1%至1美元兑56.66比索,创11月份以来最大涨幅。

美元/日元一度下跌1.2%,至145.87,交易员等待日本央行行长植田和男在8月23日出席议会时是否会暗示央行的加息路径。

彭博美元现货指数下跌0.3%,交易员们正在等待美联储主席鲍威尔本周晚些时候在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上的讲话,以寻找降息信号。衡量美元看涨期权与看跌期权总需求的指标显示,交易员们对对冲方向的看法存在分歧,因为他们在今年大部分时间里都押注美元走强。

(来源:Bloomberg)

区域股市周一也出现上涨,基准MSCI亚太指数上涨近1%,创下一个月以来最高收盘价。

景顺资产管理日本公司全球市场策略师Tomo Kinoshita表示:“市场预计未来几个季度亚洲经济前景将更加光明。”

他预计投资者将向亚洲股市配置更多资金,尤其是印度、印尼和马来西亚股市。

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