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美国美元指数在接近周末时稳稳交投于100.00上方

FXStreet2026年9月18日 03:44
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  • 美元在周末最后一个交易日守住近期涨幅,徘徊于100.27附近。
  • 美联储将利率上调25个基点至3.75%-4.00%区间,并暗示今年剩余时间还会进一步加息。
  • 投资者将注意力转向9月份美国私营部门初步PMI数据。

周五亚洲交易时段,美元(USD)在窄幅区间内盘整,但接近过去六周以来的最高水平。截至发稿,追踪美元兑六种主要货币价值的美元指数(DXY)稳守100.27附近。

本周美元表现优于其他货币,因为美联储(Fed)将利率上调25个基点(bps)至3.75%-4.00%区间,交易员也重新调整了利率预期。

下表显示了 美元 (USD) 对所列主要货币 本周的变动百分比。[货币名称]对[货币名称]最强。

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD 0.99% 1.20% 2.28% 0.81% 0.46% 1.55% 0.95%
EUR -0.99% 0.19% 1.26% -0.18% -0.52% 0.55% -0.04%
GBP -1.20% -0.19% 1.09% -0.37% -0.72% 0.37% -0.26%
JPY -2.28% -1.26% -1.09% -1.45% -1.83% -0.79% -1.38%
CAD -0.81% 0.18% 0.37% 1.45% -0.33% 0.73% 0.10%
AUD -0.46% 0.52% 0.72% 1.83% 0.33% 1.08% 0.48%
NZD -1.55% -0.55% -0.37% 0.79% -0.73% -1.08% -0.63%
CHF -0.95% 0.04% 0.26% 1.38% -0.10% -0.48% 0.63%

热图显示了主要货币相对于其他货币的百分比变化。基础货币从左列中选取,而报价货币从顶部行中选取。例如,如果您从左列选择 美元 并沿着水平线移动到 日元 ,则框中显示的百分比变化将表示 USD (基数)/ JPY (报价)。

根据CME美联储观察工具,市场预期美联储至少再加息一次的概率已从一周前的66.3%升至88%。

随着美联储“点阵图”显示,18名联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)成员中有16人认为今年剩余时间内至少还会加息一次,鹰派的美联储押注加速升温。此外,美联储主席凯文-沃什在新闻发布会上传达的通胀上行风险也支撑了加息预期。沃什表示:“通胀过高,而且持续时间太长。”

下周,投资者将关注将于周三公布的9月份美国S&P Global采购经理人指数(PMI)初值数据。

美元指数技术分析

在日线图上,美元指数现报100.26。该指数已重新站上20日指数移动平均线(EMA)99.56上方,在价格盘整于收复的趋势支撑位之上时,短期偏向转为看涨。动能表现积极,14周期相对强弱指数(RSI)徘徊在62附近,表明买盘压力持续,但尚未进入超买区域。

下行方面,初步支撑位于20日EMA附近的99.56,这一水平支撑着近期涨势,并将在任何回调中成为第一道防线。若日线收盘站上100.26,将强化看涨偏向,只要该指数守住短期均线之上,市场焦点就将继续指向进一步上涨。

(本故事的技术分析由AI工具协助撰写。了解更多。

美元常见问题(FAQ)

美元(USD)是美国的官方货币,也是许多其他国家的“事实上”货币,与当地纸币一起流通。根据 2022年的数据,美元是世界上交易量最大的货币,占全球外汇交易额的88%以上,平均每天交易6.6万亿美元。 第二次世界大战后,美元取代英镑成为世界储备货币。在其历史上的大部分时间里,美元都是由黄金支撑的,直到1971年布雷顿森林协定(Bretton Woods Agreement)废除了金本位制。”

“影响美元价值的最重要的单一因素是货币政策,这是由美联储(Fed)决定的。美联储有两项任务:实现物价稳定(控制通胀)和促进充分就业。它实现这两个目标的主要工具是调整利率。当物价上涨过快,通货膨胀率高于美联储2%的目标时,美联储将加息,这有助于美元升值。当通货膨胀率低于2%或失业率过高时,美联储可能会降低利率,这将给美元带来压力。”

在极端情况下,美联储还可以印更多美元,实施量化宽松政策。量化宽松是美联储在陷入困境的金融体系中大幅增加信贷流动的过程。这是一种非标准的政策措施,用于信贷枯竭,因为银行不愿相互放贷(出于对交易对手违约的担忧)。当仅仅降低利率不太可能达到必要的效果时,这是最后的手段。这是美联储在2008年金融危机期间对抗信贷紧缩的首选武器。它涉及到美联储印刷更多的美元,并用这些美元主要从金融机构购买美国政府债券。量化宽松通常会导致美元走软。”

量化紧缩(QT)是一个相反的过程,即美联储停止从金融机构购买债券,不再将其持有的到期债券的本金再投资于新的购买。这通常对美元有利。

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