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日元:日本央行沟通后日元脆弱 - 三菱东京日联银行

FXStreet2026年9月18日 08:42
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三菱日联金融集团(MUFG)的德里克-哈尔彭尼(Derek Halpenny)指出,日本央行将利率上调 25 个基点至 1.25%,但未达到鹰派市场定价的预期,最初引发日元抛售,因为市场对更大幅度举措的预期过头了。日本央行关于实际利率的措辞已从“负值”改为“低位”,而前瞻性指引仍指向宽松环境和进一步渐进式收紧。MUFG 认为,如果美元情绪保持有利,美元/日元短期内仍有进一步缓步走高的空间。

日本央行加息未能满足鹰派定价

“我们昨天在这里提到,我们认为日本央行未能达到利率市场中的鹰派定价水平的门槛很低,而今天的情况正是如此,最初对将利率上调 25 个基点至 1.25%的决定的反应凸显出风险:在未来十二个月内,日本央行很可能无法达到接近 100 个基点(包括今天的加息在内)的收紧预期。”

“其次,日本央行将声明中关于实际利率‘为负,主要在短至中期区间’的表述改为‘维持在低位,主要在短至中期区间’。这实际上只是日本央行在承认事实——前端利率的上升相当明显(自上次日本央行会议以来,2 年期日本国债收益率已上升 35 个基点),而且在当前通胀仍低于 2.0%目标的情况下,用‘低位’而非‘负值’来描述是合理的。”

“这一点也体现在日本央行维持其观点,即‘预计将维持宽松的金融条件’,因此该行‘将继续上调政策利率并调整货币宽松程度’。”

“也许最重要的是,他表示‘政策操作阶段已经改变’,这表明未来收紧步伐可能会有所调整,不过植田随后又补充说,日本央行并没有特别设定某种步伐。”

“因此,我们认为,近期日元走强出现一定回吐在短期内是合理的。如果更广泛的美元情绪保持有利,美元/日元短期内仍有进一步缓步走高的空间。”

(本文由人工智能工具协助生成,并经编辑审核。了解更多。

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