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白银价格预测:随着美国10年期收益率下滑,白银/美元升至接近66.00美元

FXStreet2026年9月18日 02:59
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  • 白银上涨,因油价下跌缓解通胀担忧并压低美国国债收益率。
  • 在沙特管道进展和外交动态之后,美国10年期收益率回落至4.93%。
  • 美联储主席沃什释放鹰派前景信号,推动10月加息预期升至53.1%。

白银价格(白银/美元)连续第二个交易日上涨,周五亚洲时段交投于每盎司65.80美元附近。无收益资产白银获得支撑,因油价下跌有助于缓解通胀担忧,进而推动政府债券收益率走低。

原油价格下跌,此前有消息称沙特阿拉伯正努力恢复通过其东西管道的输送,同时市场焦点也转向美国总统唐纳德-特朗普与海湾国家领导人即将举行的会晤。与此同时,美国国债收益率从近期多年高点回落,基准10年期收益率在本周早些时候短暂突破5.0%关口后,回落至约4.93%。

油气价格走低为债券带来短暂喘息,但美联储鹰派立场仍在延续

法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)策略师表示,债券市场“在今早开盘时得到了油气价格走低的助力”,此前Axios报道称,“美国计划下周与海湾国家恢复就伊朗问题的谈判”。他们指出,“昨晚鹰派的美联储加息令卖盘最初蜂拥而至”,随着风险资产因点阵图和中性利率上修而回落,“10年期美债收益率一度跌至4.93%,随后在亚洲时段回升至5.02%”。

与此同时,在美联储三年来首次加息后,投资者继续评估其未来货币政策路径。美联储主席凯文-沃什释放鹰派立场,表示通胀长期维持在过高水平,并强调近期夏季经济数据未能显示出有意义的结构性改善。在他发表讲话后,市场预期发生变化,CME FedWatch工具显示,交易员目前押注美联储10月会议再次加息的概率为53.1%,高于前一日的44%。

白银常见问题(FAQ)

白银是投资者之间交易量很大的贵金属。历史上,它一直被用作价值储存和交换媒介。尽管没有黄金那么受欢迎,但交易者可能会转向白银,以实现投资组合的多元化,因为白银具有内在价值,或者在高通胀时期作为一种潜在的对冲工具。投资者可以以金币或金条的形式购买实物白银,也可以通过交易所交易基金(etf)等工具进行交易。交易所交易基金追踪国际市场上的白银价格。

银价可能会受到多种因素的影响。地缘政治不稳定或对经济深度衰退的担忧,可能使白银价格因其避险地位而上涨,尽管其上涨幅度不及黄金。作为一种无收益资产,白银往往会随着利率的降低而上涨。它的变动还取决于美元(USD)的表现,因为资产是以美元(XAG/USD)定价的。美元走强往往会抑制银价上涨,而美元走弱则可能会推高银价。其他因素,如投资需求、采矿供应(白银比黄金丰富得多)和回收率也会影响价格。

银被广泛应用于工业,特别是在电子或太阳能等领域,因为它是所有金属中导电性最高的金属之一,比铜和金还要高。需求的激增可能会提高价格,而需求的下降往往会降低价格。美国、中国和印度经济的动态也可能导致价格波动:对于美国,尤其是中国,它们的大型工业部门在各种工艺中使用白银;在印度,消费者对黄金珠宝的需求也在决定金价方面发挥了关键作用。

白银价格往往跟随黄金的走势。当金价上涨时,白银通常也会随之上涨,因为它们作为避险资产的地位是相似的。黄金/白银比率显示了等于一盎司黄金价值所需的白银盎司数,可能有助于确定两种金属之间的相对估值。一些投资者可能认为高比率是白银被低估或黄金被高估的一个指标。相反,较低的比率可能表明黄金相对于白银被低估了。

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