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日元在CPI报告后、BoJ前夕徘徊于对美元两周低点

FXStreet2026年9月18日 01:05
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  • 美元/日元在日本8月CPI报告公布后,因日元走弱而重新获得正面动能。
  • 市场对日本央行(BoJ)更偏鹰派的预期,可能会阻止日元空头进一步押注。
  • 美国债券收益率走软打压美元,并进一步限制现货价格的上行空间。

美元/日元货币对在周五亚洲时段吸引新的买盘,目前交投于156.00关口上方,接近两周高点,交易员正等待日本央行(BoJ)为期两天的会议结果。

日本公布的数据显示,8月份整体消费者物价指数(CPI)同比维持在1.9%,而核心通胀意外放缓至1.7%,日元(JPY)因此小幅走弱。此外,剔除新鲜食品和能源价格的核心CPI仍低于央行2%的目标,这削弱了市场对日本央行更偏鹰派的预期,并为美元/日元货币对提供了温和支撑。

不过,在市场普遍预期日本央行本周五加息之后,交易员仍在计入12月进一步上行的更大可能性。因此,日本央行行长植田和男(Kazuo Ueda)在会后新闻发布会上的讲话将受到密切关注,以判断未来收紧政策的具体时点和步伐。反过来,这一前景将对日元走势起到关键作用,并为美元/日元货币对提供新的推动力。

与此同时,美联储(Fed)主席凯文-沃什(Kevin Warsh)对通胀的关注缓和了固定收益市场近期的抛售,将美国债券收益率从多年高点拉回。这使美元多头继续处于守势,进而可能在这一关键央行事件前限制美元/日元货币对的进一步上涨。不过,现货价格似乎有望录得三周来的首次上涨。

美元/日元4小时图

Chart Analysis USD/JPY

技术分析

从4小时图来看,美元/日元货币对仍受制于100周期简单移动平均线(SMA)和50.0%斐波那契回撤位下方。上方一系列阻力位表明,反弹容易遭遇卖盘,而近期自低位反弹更像是更大修正阶段中的整理,而非明确的看涨延续。

与此同时,初步阻力位于100周期SMA 156.44,紧随其后的是50.0%回撤位156.60;进一步阻力位分别位于61.8%水平157.48,以及158.74和160.35。下行方面,直接支撑位于38.2%斐波那契回撤位155.71,随后是23.6%水平154.62,更深的看跌延伸则指向152.85附近的结构性支撑。

(本故事的技术分析由AI工具协助撰写。了解更多。

经济指标

日本核心消费者物价指数年率

日本国家消费者物价指数(CPI)由日本统计局每月发布,衡量全国家庭购买的商品和服务的价格波动。同比读数将参考月份的价格与前一年同月的价格进行比较。剔除食品和能源的指数广泛用于衡量基础通胀趋势,因为这两个组成部分的波动性较大。一般来说,高读数被视为对日元(JPY)利好,而低读数被视为利空。

阅读更多

上次发布时间: 周四 9月 17, 2026 23:30

频率: 每月

实际值: 1.7%

预期值: -

前值: 1.8%

来源: Statistics Bureau of Japan

免责声明:本网站提供的信息仅供教育和参考之用,不应视为财务或投资建议。

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