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特朗普暗示伊朗冲突或接近尾声 金价亚盘一度飙升50美元!渣打警告黄金抛售风险

FX1682026年3月10日 03:54
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24K99讯 在美国总统特朗普(Donald Trump)暗示中东战争可能接近结束后,黄金上涨,油价则应声下跌。

(截图来源:彭博社)

金价周二(3月10日)亚市一度上涨0.9%,升破5180美元/盎司,抹去前一交易日的跌幅。特朗普表示,这场冲突“很快”就会得到解决;与此同时,美元指数一度下跌0.1%,延续了周一的跌势。原油价格则暴跌逾10%,市场在异常剧烈的波动交易中持续震荡。

现货黄金价格亚市盘中最高触及5186.95美元/盎司,日内涨幅达到50美元。

(截图来源:彭博社)

任何迹象表明白宫准备结束与伊朗的战争(目前已进入第二周),都可能缓解此前压制金价的一部分压力。霍尔木兹海峡事实上被关闭,以及伊朗对能源基础设施发动导弹袭击,推动油价飙升,并加剧市场对通胀的担忧。

这反过来降低美联储和其他央行降息的可能性。借贷成本上升通常对黄金不利,因为黄金本身不产生利息收益。此外,随着战争推进、全球股市遭遇抛售,这一避险资产也被部分投资者用作获取流动性的来源,从而进一步对金价形成压力。

渣打银行(Standard Chartered)全球大宗商品研究主管Suki Cooper表示:“在高风险事件中,我们看到黄金发挥了其一贯的作用。最初,地缘政治风险溢价会推动金价上涨,但当市场出现现金需求压力时,黄金往往会成为投资者首先考虑变现的资产之一——尤其是在其此前表现良好的情况下。”

尽管交易走势震荡、上行动能有所停滞,但黄金今年以来仍累计上涨约20%。特朗普对全球贸易和地缘政治格局的冲击,以及对美联储独立性的威胁,整体上提振了避险资产的需求。

然而,自战争爆发以来,交易所交易基金(ETF)持有的黄金规模却出现下降。根据彭博汇编的数据,上周黄金ETF总持仓减少近30吨,创下两年多以来最大的单周抛售。

道明证券(TD Securities)高级大宗商品策略师Daniel Ghali在一份报告中表示,随着市场逐渐排除降息预期,这些持仓面临压力。他指出,场外实物黄金市场出现了一些交易员“逢低买入”的迹象,但“成交量有限,规模仍属正常水平”。

在佛罗里达州多拉尔(Doral)度假村举行的新闻发布会上,特朗普还表示,美国海军将为通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮提供护航。该海峡位于伊朗海岸附近,是全球重要的能源运输咽喉通道,约五分之一的全球石油和液化天然气需经此通行。

不过,特朗普并未透露该计划的具体细节。他同时表示,预计冲突不会在本周结束。

Cooper表示,如果下行压力持续,金价最初将在约5000美元/盎司附近获得技术支撑,随后更强的支撑位可能出现在接近4500美元/盎司的水平。

Cooper说:“黄金是一种流动性很强的资产。我们认为它正在投资组合中发挥应有的作用,使投资者能够在其他地方满足流动性需求。我们认为金价可能在一段时间内仍将面临压力。”

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