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【黄金收评】究竟怎么回事!?市场突然“大变脸”:金价崩跌近233美元

FX1682026年3月4日 00:23
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24K99讯 现货黄金周二(3月3日)出现惊人暴跌,主因是美元和美债收益率走强,加上美联储降息前景转淡,反映投资者担心中东冲突若演变为长期问题,通胀升温的疑虑加深。

现货黄金周二收盘暴跌232.99美元,跌幅4.38%,报5088.74美元/盎司。上一交易日金价曾触及逾四周高点。

FXStreet分析师Christian Borjon Valencia撰文称,周二,受美国国债收益率高企拖累,黄金价格暴跌逾4%。美国、以色列和伊朗之间敌对行动的升级推高了美国国债溢价,这对美元构成利好。

RJO Futures高级市场策略师Bob Haberkorn说:“对流动性的追逐,也就是转向现金的需求,似乎造成金价回跌。美元走强,债券收益率攀升。”

Haberkorn补充说:“不过,这个回跌可能是短暂的,由地缘政治风险驱动的避险资金,应该会支撑黄金和白银价格走高。”

美元飙升至1月来最高

作为另一种避险资产的美元大幅上涨,使以美元计价的黄金对持有其他货币的投资人而言更难负担,而美国国债收益率则连续第二个交易日攀高。

美国10年期国债收益率周二上涨近3个基点,至4.059%,这对黄金构成不利影响。

随着中东冲突扩大,美元再度巩固其作为全球避险货币的地位。追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)周一上涨0.6%,报98.99,为1月以来最高水平,延续周一接近1%的涨幅。

随着原本主要发生在美国与伊朗之间的冲突扩散至中东周边国家,避险需求持续推升美元走势。

麦格理(Macquarie)全球外汇与利率策略师Thierry Wizman表示:“市场目前恐慌的原因,在于这场战争可能带来通胀压力。假如出现类似2022年至2023年俄乌战争引发的通胀冲击,全球经济增长这次可能受到更大冲击,因为以人工智能为基础的成长技术高度依赖便宜的能源与电力。”

Wizman补充称,假如战争持续,全球央行可能重新转向更为鹰派的货币政策立场,这也是美元走强的另一个推动力,不仅仅是避险需求。

此前OIS市场预期美联储今年将降息两次,但若通胀再度升温,美国利率前景最有可能被重新评估。

油价飙升打击降息预期

伊朗冲突进入第四日,德黑兰和贝鲁特接连发生爆炸。伊朗革命卫队高级官员周一宣布荷姆兹海峡已关闭。受此影响,原油价格周二大涨逾 8%。

City Index与FOREX.com市场分析师Fawad Razaqzada指出,能源基础设施受损及荷姆兹海峡油轮运输中断,让原油、天然气及成品油价格持续走强的风险加大,也加剧通胀担忧并延后降息预期,导致黄金缺乏支撑。

FXStreet分析师Christian Borjon Valencia表示,冲突进入第四天,市场情绪依然低迷,油价上涨加剧了通胀担忧。鉴于当前的地缘政治形势,投资者似乎对美联储年内降低借贷成本的信心有所下降,美国国债收益率居高不下便印证了这一点。

黄金技术分析

Valencia指出,黄金价格在短暂测试5000美元/盎司关口后,技术面依然支持进一步上涨。相对强弱指数(RSI)虽然略有下降,但仍处于看涨区域,表明买方占据优势。然而,短期内金价可能在5100美元/盎司上方/下方盘整,等待新的催化剂。

Valencia表示,如果金价突破5100美元/盎司,首个阻力位在5200美元/盎司,其次是2月24日高点5249美元/盎司,然后是5300美元/盎司。金价更高阻力位是3月3日高点5379美元/盎司,再往上是5419美元/盎司。

(现货黄金日线图 来源:FXStreet)

Valencia补充道,相反,如果金价跌破5000美元/盎司,首个支撑位在4950美元/盎司,其次是2月17日的周期低点4841美元/盎司。如果金价进一步走弱,下一个目标价位将是50日均线4810美元/盎司。

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