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黄金突然急跌超60美元!分析师警告:若跌破5100美元,金价或大跌至4380美元

FX1682026年2月25日 22:27
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FX168财经报社(北美)讯 现货黄金本周继续守在5100美元/盎司上方——这一水平被视为2月行情的关键突破位。但Forex.com市场分析师Razan Hilal指出,黄金上方在5200—5300美元/盎司区间面临显著阻力;与此同时,当前技术图形正越来越像1月大跌前的“高位过热”状态,若金价失守5100美元,或触发新一轮下行,目标将指向4800美元,甚至可能进一步下探至4380美元。

Hilal表示,金价能够守住5100美元上方,反映出在贸易政策不确定性加剧之际,市场避险需求重新升温。她指出:“这一轮上行让黄金在经历2月波动后重新回到明确的多头技术区间,增强了投资者对贵金属的信心。但与此同时,这种强势也正在遭遇历史上偏‘极端’的动能读数,市场开始质疑其可持续性。当前结构呈现出一个关键拐点——上涨延续与结构性回撤风险并存。

她警告称,黄金的突破走势正在面临动能衰竭的风险,眼下的技术条件在历史上往往预示着更长周期的回撤。Hilal强调,目前价格行为“更偏多头一侧”,因为金价在2月期间持续受制的阻力位上方企稳,维持在5100美元上方也等于确认了结构性突破。

不过,Hilal同时指出,相对强弱指标(RSI)已经回到1月的“超买”水平,而当时金价刚刚从历史高位出现急跌;当前的动能形态与此前阶段性顶部的特征相似。她认为,黄金要想在5000美元上方维持涨势,需要“明确突破”5200—5300美元阻力区,否则在仓位与动能都偏拥挤的背景下,金价将更容易出现快速而尖锐的回调。

在下行路径方面,Hilal给出了更清晰的“支撑阶梯”。她表示,一旦金价收盘重新跌破5100美元,市场可能再度进入区间整理甚至下探,“风险区间将一路延伸至4800美元”。若4800美元也无法守住,金价或将继续测试4600、4530与4380美元等后续支撑位,这些区域在2月早些时候曾是需求较为集中的买盘区。

因此,Hilal认为,黄金能否延续涨势不仅取决于宏观层面的避险资金流入,更关键在于多头能否在动能衰竭之前守住5100美元的突破区,否则市场主导权可能重新回到空头手中。

值得注意的是,金价在周三美市盘中曾一度触及日内高点5217.78美元,但美市尾盘突然在1小时内迅速跳水逾60美元,随后自低位有所回升并收于5164.79美元,日内涨幅缩减至0.40%或20.79美元。

(图源:FX168)

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