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英镑危机加剧:对冲基金加大做空押注,政治不确定性加重压力

FX1682026年2月9日 05:41
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近几日,英镑接连遭遇重击。随着对冲基金在期权市场加大做空押注,英镑可能还将面临进一步下行压力。

英镑面临多重压力,期权市场显现悲观情绪

相关仓位变化之际,英镑在2月5日兑欧元和美元一度跌至两周低点——当天,英国央行距离降息仅差一票。

由于英国首相斯塔默(Keir Starme)的领导危机加剧,英镑再次受到打击。此前,斯塔默的幕僚长辞职。

当地时间2月8日,根据英国首相府消息,英国首相幕僚长摩根·麦克斯威尼已辞职。据多名英国议会议员透露,麦克斯威尼被指在前工党重量级人物彼得·曼德尔森(Peter Mandelson)出任英国驻美国大使一事中发挥了关键推动作用,该任命随后在党内引发争议。

曼德尔森已于2025年9月被解除驻美大使职务。近期,随着新一批涉及爱泼斯坦的相关文件曝光,曼德尔森再次面临舆论压力。相关文件显示,其在担任英国商务大臣期间,涉嫌向爱泼斯坦透露敏感信息。

在2月5日,未来一个月内对冲英镑兑欧元下跌风险的期权溢价(相对于押注上涨)升至去年11月下旬以来的最高水平。根据美国存管信托与清算公司(DTCC)的数据,当天欧元/英镑期权的成交量也攀升至今年以来的高点。其中,看涨期权(即在英镑兑欧元走弱时获利的期权)成交量比看跌期权(英镑走强时价值上升)高出约50%。

(截图来源:彭博社)

法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)外汇期权交易全球主管Thomas Bureau表示,2月5日市场波动后,“对冲基金流入欧元/英镑的交易几乎呈现单边态势,上方(英镑走弱方向)的期权买盘十分强劲”。

他补充称:“英镑的交易波动性呈现出新兴市场货币的特征,主要受全球美元走强以及对地缘政治头条消息高度敏感的影响。”

在去年英镑兑欧元已累计下跌逾5%的背景下,最新进展无疑令英镑再受打击。高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)的策略师预计,未来12个月英镑兑欧元将进一步走弱约6%;野村控股(Nomura Holdings)则预计,到4月底英镑将下跌约3%。

加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)指出,在英国央行作出利率决议之前,英镑就已承压,因为斯塔默作为英国领导人的地位看起来愈发不稳。

RBC驻伦敦外汇期权交易董事Jamie Sanders表示:“我们尤其看到市场对欧元/英镑上方(英镑走弱方向)期权的需求。”他补充称,这一需求推动该货币对的隐含波动率——即市场对价格波动预期的指标——被重新定价至“明显更高”的水平。

政治不稳定加剧,英镑走弱风险加大

荷兰合作银行(Rabobank)外汇策略师Jane Foley表示,展望年中,欧元/英镑存在温和走高的风险,而在假设美元不会再度出现大幅抛售的情况下,英镑/美元可能继续下行。她补充称,原本市场预期斯塔默将在5月地方选举后面临领导权挑战,但这一情况现在可能提前出现。

Foley指出:“市场将对英国政治层面的不稳定高度警惕,尤其是一旦看起来下一任首相可能来自工党左翼阵营。”

不过,英镑上周五同时兑欧元和美元走强,表明其下行路径未必是一条直线。美国非农就业和通胀数据料将成为短期内的重要事件风险,而政治相关的头条消息预计仍将是关键驱动因素。

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