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高市早苗获胜后,小心日本汇市飞出“黑天鹅”!日本最高外汇官员称政府高度警惕

FX1682026年2月9日 05:50
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FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 日本最高外汇官员表示,在首相高市早苗(Sanae Takaichi)于周日提前大选中取得历史性胜利、日元一度再度承压之后,政府仍对外汇市场保持高度警惕并持续监测。此番言论令投资者对日本当局干预汇市持警惕态度。

日本财务省国际事务副大臣三村淳(Atsushi Mimura)周一(2月9日)对记者表示:“一如既往,我们以高度紧迫感关注市场动向。”他补充称:“我们仍与市场保持密切沟通。”

三村淳的表态正值日元承压之际。此前,这位主张刺激政策的首相取得压倒性胜利,引发市场猜测,她可能在政治阻力较小的情况下推动更为激进的财政支出议程。

高市早苗领导的执政党自民党在此次大选中赢得众议院465个席位中的316席,创下战后日本单一政党在大选中的最大胜利纪录。

这一结果赋予高市早苗推进其多项竞选承诺的授权,其中包括大胆的财政支出计划,而这些计划已令投资者感到不安。

高市早苗在大选后的新闻发布会上表示,政府将加快讨论是否暂停对食品征收消费税,为期两年。

日元一度贬值至1美元兑157.76日元,随后收复部分跌幅,在东京上午中段交投于157日元附近,距离选举前上周五尾盘的水平不远。日本股市以及基准国债收益率则大幅上升。

在周日公布选举结果后,日本财务大臣片山皋月(Satsuki Katayama)在电视节目中表示,如有需要,她已准备好在周一与市场沟通。

片山皋月重申,自己仍与美国财政部长贝森特(Scott Bessent)保持密切联系,双方共同肩负维护美元/日元汇率稳定的责任。

大和资本市场欧洲公司(Daiwa Capital Markets Europe)经济研究主管Chris Scicluna表示:“未来几天美元/日元可能会测试159、160这一关口。我认为,随着本周的推进,关于可能进行干预的讨论很可能会再次浮现。”

回顾历史,日本曾在2022年和2024年多次出手干预汇市,以遏制日元快速贬值。

分析人士指出,若美元/日元在短时间内加速逼近160,且伴随投机性资金流动加剧,日本政府采取进一步口头干预甚至实质干预的可能性将显著上升。

不过,在美日货币政策分化尚未明显收敛的背景下,单边干预对日元的支撑效果或仍偏短期,汇率走势最终仍将取决于美国利率前景及日本央行政策正常化的进展。

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