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这将是一场更大的经济危机!华尔街大鳄希夫警告:美元将在危机期间暴跌

FX1682026年2月5日 05:37
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FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 华尔街大鳄、经济学家彼得·希夫(Peter Schiff)警告称,由于主权债务不可持续以及市场对美元信心不足,美国经济在2026年可能会进一步恶化。他预计,美元将在危机期间大幅贬值。

欧太平洋资产管理公司首席执行官(CEO)彼得·希夫在2月3日与格伦·迪森(Glenn Diesen)对话时表示,黄金价格飙升并突破每盎司5000美元,应被视为市场发出的警示信号,而非投机性的异常波动。

尽管他早在十多年前就曾预测金价将达到这一水平,但他认为,支撑其最初预测的结构性问题此后不仅没有缓解,反而进一步加剧。

希夫说:“……导致我相信金价会到5000美元的那些问题,如今严重得多。你知道,我们把问题一拖再拖,拖了十多年,但在这个过程中,所有问题都变得更糟了。所以不幸的是,我现在认为这将是一场更大的经济危机。”

希夫将当前形势与2008年经济衰退相比较,并补充称,下一场危机将从联邦层面爆发,因为美国国债以及美元本身都将成为问题的核心。

值得注意的是,美国联邦债务已从2008年金融危机期间约9万亿至10万亿美元,增长到如今超过38万亿美元。因此,市场对华盛顿在不通过货币扩张的情况下履行其债务义务的能力信心大幅下降。

“美元将成为危机的中心”

希夫认为,人为压低的利率是维持整个体系运转的唯一因素。他指出,利率正常化将导致偿债成本难以承受。

与此同时,他还质疑了美元将在下一次经济衰退中像18年前那样充当避险资产的假设。相反,他预计美元将在危机期间大幅贬值。

希夫说:“这一次,我认为美元将成为危机的中心。美元将会暴跌,这将加剧问题,因为它会推高利率和消费价格。”

这位资深金融人士指出,美元指数近期跌至多年低位、以及兑瑞士法郎创纪录新低,都是更广泛信心流失的早期迹象。

此外,访谈还谈到,各国央行仍在持续降低对美元的依赖,而黄金正成为主要的替代性储备资产。

希夫进一步指出,其中一个重要原因在于,美国的外交政策、贸易关税以及地缘政治威胁,促使各国寻求摆脱以美元为基础的体系,实现更大的独立性。

2026年经济展望

展望2026年,希夫表示,美国经济状况可能会进一步恶化,因为名义GDP数据受到债务融资投资(尤其是在人工智能领域)的扭曲。

他警告称,生活成本上升和劳动力市场疲软可能会带来政治后果,并预测共和党将在美国中期选举中失利,可能同时失去众议院和参议院的控制权。

希夫表示:“我认为,表面之下,情况并不乐观。”他补充说,“随着时间的推移,这些问题将会恶化。”

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