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贝森特言论打击美日联合干预汇市希望!交易员强调日本单独干预日元汇率的风险

FX1682026年1月29日 07:05
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FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 美国彭博社周四(1月29日)报道称,交易员们在质疑,如果日本单独干预以支持日元,效果会有多大,因为美国财长贝森特(Scott Bessen)对协调行动的前景表示怀疑。

(截图来源:彭博社)

在贝森特周三表示美国“绝对不会”干预美元-日元市场后,这些希望受到了打击,导致日元一度下跌最多1.2%,创下逾五周以来最大单日跌幅。此前,纽约联储可能进行所谓的“汇率检查”的猜测曾一度推高日元,使美元/日元跌向150水平。

尽管日元距离普遍认为会触发即刻干预的水平还有一段距离,交易员们再次被迫评估,如果在2月8日下议院选举前,日元出现急剧贬值,日本可能如何应对。

澳大利亚联邦银行(Commonwealth Bank of Australia)策略师Carol Kong表示:“由于联合干预的可能性已经不大,市场可能会测试日本财务省的容忍度,推动美元/日元回升。如果没有美国的参与,日本财务省单独干预的效果将大打折扣,难以有效抵消日元下行压力,这意味着干预后的涨幅可能会迅速消退。”

除了干预措施外,投资者指出疲软的基本面继续对日元构成压力。实际利率仍为负值,通胀率仍高于2%,而隔夜指数掉期显示,交易员预计日本央行今年只会加息两次——进一步强化政策落后的观点。

财政风险也在加剧。预计执政的自民党将在即将举行的选举中赢得多数席位,这加剧人们对激进财政刺激的担忧,并对日元施加压力。

澳大利亚国民银行(National Australia Bank)货币策略师Rodrigo Catril表示:“基本面没有变化——日本央行维持宽松政策,高市政府计划实施没有资金来源的扩张性财政政策。除非我们看到日本央行政策的转变,否则外汇干预不太可能对日元产生持久的影响。”

美国方面的因素也使局势更加复杂。任何日本的干预可能都需要得到美国的默许,因为这将对美元施加下行压力,使其成为一个敏感问题,尤其是在投资者越来越关注美元新一轮下行趋势的讨论之际。

IG澳大利亚市场分析师Tony Sycamore表示:“从美国的角度来看,若没有相应的货币政策基本面的转变,干预的吸引力较小,因为长期成功的概率较低。在贝森特的评论之后,我认为美元/日元将很快回升向155水平,并有可能测试158,直到市场再次变得更加谨慎。”

在日本,干预决策由财务省制定,并由日本央行通过少数几家商业银行执行,通常涉及出售美元以支撑日元现货市场汇率。

(截图来源:彭博社)

历史经验表明,单边行动只能提供暂时的缓解。日本在2024年四次干预日元汇率,每次都短暂提振日元,但未能扭转多年来日元持续下跌的趋势,市场不断考验着决策者的决心。

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