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警惕日元迎来更劲爆行情!彭博独家:花旗称确认这一点恐刺激日元再涨15%

FX1682026年1月28日 00:45
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#日本市场#FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 美国彭博社周二(1月27日)发布独家报道称,日元自2024年8月以来的最强三日反弹,尚不足以让花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)策略师Daniel Tobon转变为日元多头。他表示,要想保持这种涨势,日本买家需要重新将资金转回日本债券市场。

Tobon在接受采访时表示:“最大的交易机会在于等待那个转折点,等待我们看到拐点的那一刻。一旦你看到了那种确认信号,在那之后日元可能还有超过15%的上涨空间。”

(截图来源:彭博社)

日元近期的涨势源于市场猜测,日本和美国正在准备出手支撑日元,此前日元一度跌至接近1美元兑160日元,这一水平曾促使日本官员在2024年干预市场。

周二,日元再次上涨1%,升至1美元兑153日元下方。

日元走势急剧反转发生在日本债券市场上周遭遇沉重抛售之后,当时投资者担忧日本首相高市早苗(Sanae Takaichi)的财政计划将加重政府已经庞大的债务负担。

(截图来源:彭博社)

这场抛售大幅推高了日本债券收益率,可能激励投资者将资金从海外撤回,并重新投资于国内市场。这也提高了对冲基金可能会解除套息交易的前景,套息交易涉及在日本借款,然后将所得资金再投资于利率较高的国家。

Tobon表示,他仍然认为日元在下个月选举前可能会再次开始走弱。

他说:“如果我看到本地投资者开始转向日本国债,那可能是一个更强的信号,表明现在是购买日元的时候,因为这将开始缓解财政担忧。这个情况可能在选举后就发生,或者也可能会在更远的未来发生。”

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