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纽元/美元跌破0.5600,因美元看涨,所有目光聚焦美国非农就业数据

FXStreet2025年1月10日 07:10
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  • 纽元/美元在周五欧洲早盘时段下跌至约0.5585,当日下跌0.25%。
  • 美联储放缓降息步伐的前景可能会提振美元兑纽元。
  • 美国12月非农就业数据将于周五备受关注。

周五欧洲早盘时段,纽元/美元吸引了一些卖家至约0.5585。由于市场对美国联邦储备委员会(美联储)未来降息步伐将更加谨慎的预期升温,该货币对仍面临卖压。所有目光都将集中在周五晚些时候公布的美国12月非农就业报告(NFP)。

美元指数(DXY),衡量美元相对于其最重要的贸易伙伴货币的价值,预计将连续第六周上涨,目前交投于103.35附近。坚挺的美元受到债券收益率上升和预期美国经济数据强劲的支撑。

美联储在2024年最后三次会议上决定将政策利率下调一个百分点,但预计在即将到来的1月政策会议上将维持利率在当前的4.25%至4.5%区间。据CME FedWatch工具显示,交易员已将美联储本月暂停降息的概率定价为近93.1%。

另一方面,新西兰储备银行(RBNZ)的鸽派押注和中国的通缩压力可能会拖累纽元。周四发布的数据表明,中国12月消费者物价指数(CPI)几乎持平,引发了通缩担忧。中国经济的任何疲软迹象都可能削弱纽元,因为中国是新西兰的主要贸易伙伴。

新西兰元(纽元) FAQs

新西兰元(NZD),也被称为Kiwi,是投资者中众所周知的交易货币。它的价值大体上取决于新西兰经济的健康状况和该国央行的政策。不过,也有一些独特的因素会影响纽元的走势。中国经济的表现往往会影响新西兰元,因为中国是新西兰最大的贸易伙伴。对中国经济来说,坏消息可能意味着新西兰对中国的出口减少,从而打击中国经济和人民币。另一个影响纽元的因素是奶制品价格,因为奶制品是新西兰的主要出口产品。高乳制品价格增加了出口收入,对经济和新西兰元都有积极的贡献。

新西兰储备银行(RBNZ)的目标是在中期实现并维持1%至3%的通货膨胀率,重点是将其保持在2%的中点附近。为此,银行设定了一个适当的利率水平。当通货膨胀过高时,新西兰央行会提高利率来给经济降温,但此举也会提高债券收益率,增加投资者对该国投资的吸引力,从而提振纽元。相反,低利率往往会削弱纽元。所谓的利率差异,即新西兰的利率与美联储设定的利率相比如何,也可能在纽元/美元货币对的走势中发挥关键作用。

新西兰发布的宏观经济数据是评估经济状况的关键,并可能影响新西兰元(NZD)估值。基于高经济增长、低失业率和高信心的强劲经济对纽元有利。高增长的经济吸引外国投资,并可能鼓励新西兰储备银行提高利率,如果这种经济实力与高通胀一起出现。相反,如果经济数据疲软,纽元可能会贬值。

新西兰元(NZD)倾向于在风险偏好时期走强,或者当投资者认为更广泛的市场风险较低并对经济增长持乐观态度时。这往往会给大宗商品和新西兰元等所谓的“大宗商品货币”带来更有利的前景。相反,在市场动荡或经济不确定时,纽元往往会走弱,因为投资者倾向于出售高风险资产,逃往更稳定的避风港。



 

 

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