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黄金短线突然一波拉升!金价突破2490美元 FXStreet高级分析师金价技术前景分析

FX1682024年8月23日 03:32
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#黄金技术分析#24K99讯 周五(8月23日)亚市盘中,现货黄金短线突然一波明显拉升,金价刚刚突破2490美元/盎司关口。FXStreet高级分析师Pablo Piovano撰文,对黄金技术前景进行分析。

分析师表示,美元指数周五亚市盘中回落,目前位于101.30附近,美元走软刺激金价反弹。

Piovano指出,市场的注意力仍集中在美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的讲话上。金价在2530美元/盎司上方的纪录高位面临初始阻力。

(现货黄金5分钟图 来源:24K99)

现货黄金周四收盘大跌27.45美元,跌幅1.09%,报2484.74美元/盎司;金价盘中最低跌至2470.82美元/盎司。

Piovano写道,周四,黄金面临一些新的抛售压力,金价回到2500美元/盎司以下的区域。黄金的修正性下跌伴随着美元的明显反弹。由于市场参与者消化周三发布的FOMC会议纪要中的鸽派基调,并开始为鲍威尔的讲话做准备,美国国债收益率周四全面反弹,这加大黄金的下行压力。

追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)周四收盘上涨0.34%,至101.55。10年期美国国债收益率上升约10个基点,至3.875%。

美东时间8月23日上午10:00(北京时间周五22:00),美联储主席鲍威尔将在杰克逊霍尔年会上就经济前景发表讲话。

Kitco.com高级分析师Jim Wyckoff表示:“过去几年央行官员在该会议上的声明都会影响市场,鲍威尔的演讲可能透露9月预期降息的规模。”

Piovano指出,尽管FOMC会议纪要暗示,最早下个月就可能马上降息,但鲍威尔即将发表的讲话可能会让人们进一步了解他对这种可能性的看法,更重要的是,他会透露降息的潜在幅度。目前,芝加哥商品交易所集团的“美联储观察”工具显示,在9月18日的会议上降息25个基点的可能性接近75%。

Piovano声称,如果有更大幅度降息的迹象,比如50个基点,预计将给美元带来巨大压力,并使金价能够测试近期高点。

黄金短期技术前景

Piovano表示,日线图显示,黄金价格在其所有移动平均线上方运行,看涨的55日简单移动平均线(SMA)加速向上至约2390美元/盎司,也高于看涨的较长期移动平均线。与此同时,技术指标(相对强弱指数和动量)从最近的顶部回落,而ADX指标显示暂时稳定的趋势。

(现货黄金日线图 来源:FXStreet)

Piovano补充道,在短期内,根据4小时图表,修正性下跌持续存在。金价目前面临的下一个支撑位是100周期SMA(位于2452美元/盎司),之后是2432美元/盎司,更下方支撑在200周期SMA(位于2428美元/盎司)。

如果金价持续跌破200周期SMA区域,金价可能会进一步回调至2379美元/盎司,接下来是在2364美元/盎司。

Piovano给出金价最新的重要支撑位和阻力位:

支撑位:2470.85美元/盎司;2432.22美元/盎司;2428.35美元/盎司

阻力位:2519.18美元/盎司;2531.76美元/盎司;2535.00美元/盎司

北京时间11:21,现货黄金报2492.50美元/盎司。

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