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黄金刚刚一波跌势!金价正逼近2450美元 FXStreet首席分析师金价技术分析

FX1682024年8月16日 03:48
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#黄金技术分析#24K99讯 周五(8月16日)亚市盘中,现货黄金短线出现一波跌势,金价正逼近2450美元/盎司。FXStreet首席分析师Valeria Bednarik撰文,对黄金技术前景进行分析。

Bednarik写道,黄金价格守在熟悉的水平,买家仍在伺机逢低买入。

(现货黄金5分钟图 来源:24K99)

现货黄金周四收盘上涨0.37%,报2456.47美元/盎司。在强于预期的美国CPI数据公布后,金价一度大跌至2432.05美元/盎司,为周四盘中低点。

美国商务部周四报告称,7月零售销售增长1%,远超接受道琼斯调查的分析师平均预测的0.3%的增幅。

强劲的美国经济数据促使交易员降低对美联储今年大幅降息的预期。根据CME的“美联储观察”工具,市场认为美联储9月降息的可能性为100%。然而,强劲的经济数据让降息50个基点被视为不可能之举。

EverBank全球市场总裁Chris Gaffney表示:“零售销售如此乐观,表明经济强劲,这在一定程度上扭转了市场,美元正在恢复部分强势,而黄金则失去了一些光泽。”

黄金短期技术前景

Bednarik表示,黄金日线图显示,金价仍在熟悉的水平内,虽然黄金周四上涨,但金价出现了一个较低的高点和一个较低的低点,这通常被视为看跌信号。技术指标已小幅走低,但仍在积极水平内,限制进一步下跌的可能性。最后,金价继续在其所有移动平均线上方发展,20日简单移动平均线(SMA)走平,仍高于看涨的100日SMA和200日SMA和。总的来说,金价出现更加急剧下跌的情况似乎不太可能发生。

Bednarik补充道,在短期内,根据4小时图表,金价前景中性至看涨。技术指标转高,但仍在中线附近。与此同时,温和看涨的20周期SMA在略高于当前金价的水平提供动态阻力,而较长期移动平均线则在当前金价下方扩展其温和的上行倾向。更加重要的是,买家捍卫了6月/7月反弹走势的23.6%斐波那契回撤位(在2438.80美元/盎司附近)。

(现货黄金4小时图 来源:FXStreet)

Bednarik给出金价最新的重要支撑位和阻力位:

支撑位:2438.80美元/盎司;2426.90美元/盎司

阻力位:2471.10美元/盎司;2483.70美元/盎司;2495.00美元/盎司

北京时间11:21,现货黄金报2450.87美元/盎司。

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