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美国CPI报告暗藏玄机、金价单日大跌近18美元!FXStreet首席分析师金价技术前景分析

FX1682024年8月15日 01:12
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#黄金技术分析#24K99讯 周三(8月14日),尽管美元基本持稳,但现货黄金仍然大跌近18美元,金价收盘位于2450美元/盎司下方。FXStreet首席分析师Valeria Bednarik周三撰文,对黄金技术前景进行分析。

现货黄金周三收盘大跌17.48美元,跌幅0.71%,收报2447.40美元/盎司。

Bednarik写道,黄金价格周三急剧下滑。一旦金价明显跌破斐波那契支撑位2438.80美元/盎司,金价可能延续跌势。

分析师指出,由于最新美国CPI报告打击人们对美联储下个月大幅降息的预期,这引发黄金价格周三大幅回调。

美国劳工统计局周三发布报告称,美国7月消费者物价指数(CPI)环比上涨0.2%,同比上涨2.9%。此前接受道琼斯调查的经济学家平均预期该指数环比上涨0.2%、同比上涨3%。扣除食品和能源成本不计,美国7月核心CPI环比上涨0.2%,同比上涨3.2%,均符合预期。

美国CPI报告公布后,金价最低跌至2437.85美元/盎司,创下周三盘中低点。

道明证券美国利率策略主管Gennadiy goldberg表示,CPI报告中令人惊讶的是租金在加速上涨,而这就是市场反应有些失望的原因。6月的“业主等效租金”数据创下2021年以来的最低水平,但7月份这个指标加速到0.36%。

芝加哥商品交易所的“美联储观察工具”显示,市场目前预计美联储9月降息50个基点的可能性为36%,而美国CPI数据公布前的可能性为50%。

纽约独立金属交易商Tai Wong表示:“9月份降息已是板上钉钉的事;目前数据表明美联储开始仅打算降息25个基点,这令先前期待更高的市场大失所望。”

黄金短期技术前景

Bednarik表示,从技术面来看,黄金日线图显示,看跌潜力仍然有限。金价在6月/7月反弹走势的23.6%斐波那契回撤位2438.80美元/盎司附近发现盘中底部,目前守在该水平上方。与此同时,技术指标已经失去向上的力量,但仍在正面水平内。相对强弱指数(RSI)转向下行,但远未证实又一波下行。最后,金价继续在其所有移动平均线上方发展,20日简单移动平均线(SMA)目前持平于2417.50美元/盎司附近。

Bednarik补充道,然而,4小时图表中的技术数据显示,黄金可能会继续下跌,特别是如果金价跌破上述斐波那契支撑位。技术指标从接近超买的水平大幅回落,目前在中线附近徘徊,部分失去看跌势头,但仍在下行。与此同时,金价已经跌破其20周期SMA(约为2455.00美元/盎司)。100周期SMA和200周期SMA仍低于当前水金价,某种程度上表明,更大幅度的下跌还不太可能发生。

(现货黄金4小时图 来源:FXStreet)

Bednarik给出金价最新的重要支撑位和阻力位:

支撑位:2438.80美元/盎司;2426.90美元/盎司

阻力位:2458.70美元/盎司;2471.10美元/盎司;2483.70美元/盎司

北京时间8月15日08:59,现货黄金报2450.50美元/盎司。

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