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外汇市场交易重要信号!看空美元比例在过去一个月激增 本周美元面临大考验

FX1682024年8月12日 02:33
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FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 根据美国银行(Bank of America)的一项调查,在市场准备迎接美联储降息之际,相信美元将走软的投资者比例在过去一个月里几乎增加两倍。

在美国银行最新的月度情绪调查中,约有23%的受访者表示,他们最确信的交易是做空美元,这是今年以来的最高比例,远高于7月的8%。

(截图来源:彭博社)

美元今年的表现跑赢大多数十国集团(G10)货币,但过去一个月美元涨势消退,因为数据显示美国经济在失去动力,促使交易员押注美联储会大幅降息。

CME的“美联储观察工具”显示,市场预期美联储9月份降息50个基点的可能性超过50%。

此外,市场预计美联储年内将降息100个基点,而就在一周多前还预计降息约65个基点。

美国银行(BofA)利率策略师Ralf Preusser表示:“投资者不再担心美元面临顽固通胀造成的巨大上行风险,这应该会让美元从历史高位开始回调。”

美国CPI本周来袭

本周美国将公布7月CPI数据,这将是美联储9月利率决议前公布的倒数第二份CPI报告,预计数据表现将对美元产生重要影响。

美国7月消费者物价指数(CPI)报告定于北京时间周三20:30出炉。经济学家预计,美国7月CPI环比将上涨0.2%,而不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心CPI环比也将上涨0.2%。

按年计算,整体CPI通胀率预计将从6月份的3%小幅下降至2.9%。美国7月核心CPI同比增幅预计从3.3%下降至3.2%。

FXStreet分析师Eren Sengezer称,如果美国核心CPI数据达到或低于市场预期,可能会对美元造成压力。

免责声明:本网站提供的信息仅供教育和参考之用,不应视为财务或投资建议。

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