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日本央行意外加息后日元怎么走?FXStreet首席分析师警告:美元/日元恐有1000点暴跌空间

FX1682024年8月1日 06:25
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#日本央行动态#FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 周三(7月31日),日本央行意外将利率调升至2008年以来最高水平,并表示可能进一步加息,日元兑美元汇率周三触及四个月高点。FXStreet首席分析师Valeria Bednarik周三撰文,对日本央行加息后日元的前景进行分析。

Bednarik周三撰文称,美联储可能会“破坏”日本央行的计划。中期来看,息差的缩小将有利于日元。如果美联储和日本央行维持目前的政策路径,美元/日元可能进一步下跌1000点。

(截图来源:FXStreet)

以下是Bednarik所撰文章的主要内容:

日本央行终于醒了过来,出人意料地将基准利率上调15个基点,至0.15%-0.25%。称这一结果“令人惊讶”可能有点过头,因为几家日本媒体在决定实施前几小时就预测到了这一决定。受此影响,日元兑美元飙升至1美元兑149.78日元,为3月中旬以来的最高点。

日本央行董事会成员还概述将每月购债规模减半的计划,在全球央行正朝着相反方向发展的情况下,这终于带来了某种更坚定的货币紧缩政策。全球央行在2022年实施了大规模紧缩政策,并将利率推至创纪录水平,因为疫情后通胀飙升令政策制定者措手不及。然而,日本央行维持了宽松的货币政策,在日本与通货紧缩斗争大约30年的时间里,拒绝跟随这种趋势。

然而,时代终于变了。今年6月,日本的消费者物价指数(CPI)同比上升2.8%,对实际收入和家庭购买力造成了影响。日本央行的政策制定者真是因为非常担心才会做出这样的声明,这在除日本以外的任何其他国家看来都可能显得保守。价格上涨的速度超出预期,但日本央行董事会成员没有对此发表评论。

至少,加息有助于缩小日本与主要国家之间的利率差距,并可能导致日元走强。

美元/日元技术前景

此前由于日元持续走软,美元/日元一度触及多年高点161.94。该货币对从去年12月触及的140.00的价格区间一路涨向上述高点,直到7月才开始回落,因为投资者急于消化美联储降息的预期。

140.24/161.94反弹走势61.8%斐波那契回撤位148.58是一个潜在的看跌目标和关键突破点。一旦跌破该水平,空头将确认他们对美元/日元的控制,并目标重新测试上述140.00区域。

(美元/日元周线图 来源:FXStreet)

当然,这也取决于美联储。如果美联储在9月份降息,同时为年底前再次降息留有余地,那么美元/日元的看跌情况将保持强劲。

相反的情况将给日本央行官员带来麻烦,因为日元可能会恢复下滑走势,进一步损害日本家庭的钱包。

北京时间8月1日14:24,美元/日元报149.95。

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