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“股灾”像小儿科!彭博策略师:比特币与加密货币的暴跌比1929年股市崩盘更凶猛

FX1682026年2月6日 05:34
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FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 彭博情报(Bloomberg Intelligence)策略师迈克·麦格隆(Mike McGlone)警告称,由于极端的繁荣—崩盘周期在更短时间内集中爆发,把历史级别的风险压缩进短短数年,比特币及更广泛的加密市场如今看起来比1929年美国股市崩盘还要“剧烈”。

(截图来源:Bitcoin.com)

麦格隆2月3日在社交媒体平台X上发布内容,将比特币及更广泛的加密市场与1929—1930年美国股市崩盘进行对比,并认为近期加密资产的价格表现已经超过了历史上最严重的股市下跌之一。

他写道:“2025—2026年的比特币和加密货币,正让1929—1930年的美国股市崩盘看起来都显得温和。”

在这番言论旁,麦格隆还分享了一张彭博图表,标题为“加密货币让1929—1930年的美国股市看起来像‘小儿科’”,该图表将两者的表现统一到同一出发点进行标准化比较。

图表对比了1929—1930年道琼斯工业平均指数的走势,与2025—2026年彭博银河加密指数(Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index)的表现。

(图片来源:彭博社)

在标准化口径下,加密指数多次出现超过20%的上涨,随后又迅速反转回落,并在更短的时间内录得超过30%的回撤。相比之下,道指的下跌过程更为缓慢,亏损在数月间逐步累积,到1930年末累计跌幅约为40%。这项对比强调的是波动强度而非绝对价格水平,展示了加密市场如何在更短周期内集中上演极端的繁荣与崩盘循环。

截至2026年2月6日,比特币的交易价格接近65,480美元,创下15个月来的最低点,比2025年10月的126,000美元峰值回落了48%。

尽管这种“加密寒冬”反映了历史性的波动性,但市场的基础现在已经建立在机构支撑上,包括950亿美元的美国现货比特币ETF和超过170家上市公司持有的国债。

尽管当前的风险规避情绪和日交易量达1680亿美元,并伴随大量清算,但比特币的56%市场份额依然将其与更广泛的山寨币市场区分开来,这与1929年的道琼斯指数形成对比,后者代表的是传统的工业基础,而非全球数字避险资产。

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