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比特币失守关键支撑!比特币跌破8万美元预示着新的信心危机

FX1682026年2月2日 05:43
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价格、相关性、信念——比特币正在三方面同时失血。比特币价格已经跌破关键支撑8万美元,这预示着新的信心危机。

(截图来源:彭博社)

在周末交投清淡之际,这一全球最大加密货币跌破7.6万美元,较2025年峰值回落约40%,重新回到“解放日”关税冲击余波之后曾出现的水平。

根据CoinGecko数据,此轮抛售在过去24小时内令加密市场总市值蒸发约1,110亿美元。同一时间段内,市场追踪机构Coinglass数据显示,多空仓位合计约16亿美元被强制平仓——其中很大一部分发生在最近四小时,主要集中在比特币和以太坊。

始于10月的急剧崩盘,如今已演变成更具侵蚀性的下跌:这轮抛售并非由恐慌驱动,而是源于买盘、动能与信心的缺席。

与10月的回撤不同,此次下跌没有明显导火索,也没有连锁清算或系统性冲击——只有需求逐渐消退、流动性日益稀薄,以及一种与更广泛市场脱节的资产。

比特币未能对地缘政治压力、美元走弱或风险资产反弹作出回应。即便近期黄金和白银出现剧烈波动,加密市场也未见资金轮动。

比特币1月下跌近11%,连续第四个月收跌——这是自2018年以来最长的月度连跌,当时正值2017年首次代币发行(ICO)热潮破裂后的崩盘期。

做市商Wincent董事Paul Howard表示:“我认为2026年比特币不会再创历史新高。”

(图片来源:彭博社)

截至周日(2月1日)纽约时间上午11:20,比特币报77,190美元。

比起跌幅本身,更引人注目的是社交媒体上几乎看不到乐观情绪。在这个以张扬自信和“数字只会涨”梗图闻名的市场里,比特币的下滑却几乎没有引来加油打气,也没有多少“逢低买入”的喧嚣。

这一切发生在特朗普政府转向支持加密货币、监管层面频频传来利好,以及机构投资激增的背景之下。许多投资者认为,这种乐观情绪早已被市场提前透支——价格曾在初期迅速上涨,但随后便陷入停滞。

与此同时,现货ETF资金仍在持续流出,这表明主流买家的信念正在减弱——其中不少人在更高价位买入,如今已处于浮亏状态。大型机构玩家——例如将数字资产纳入资产负债表的企业)在去年自身股价泡沫破裂后,也放缓了买入力度,进一步削弱了市场高端的需求。

根据Kaiko数据,比特币的市场深度——衡量可用于吸收大额交易的资金规模——仍比10月峰值低逾30%。流动性上一次下滑到如此程度,还是在2022年FTX倒闭之后。

历史规律难言乐观 复苏或需更长时间

历史规律也难以带来安慰。比特币在2021年见顶后,用了28个月才恢复;在2017年ICO热潮之后,更是花了将近三年时间。按照这些标准衡量,本轮下行或许仍处于早期阶段。

Kaiko分析师Laurens Fraussen表示:“回顾历史上加密交易量的收缩情况,从2017年高点一直到2018—2019年的寒冬,我们看到各大现货交易所的成交量下降了60%到70%。”

Fraussen补充说,相比之下,2021—2023年的那轮回撤更温和,成交量仅收缩约30%到40%。

(图片来源:彭博社)

他说:“就我认为当前周期所处的位置而言,大概只走完了25%左右。从周期角度看,我们通常会在进程到约50%时出现最严重的回撤。”

Fraussen估计,距离出现一轮有实质意义的复苏,可能还需要6到9个月;在回调后期以及重新吸筹阶段,成交量很可能仍将保持低迷。

也有人认为,更根本的挑战在于:资本竞争正在加剧。

Ferro BTC Volatility Fund创始人Richard Hodges表示,他已提醒比特币大户需要保持耐心。

Hodges说:“我和很多比特币‘鲸鱼’交流过,我明确告诉他们:未来1000天里,他们不会看到比特币再创历史新高。”

(图片来源:彭博社)

Hodges说:“比特币更像是三年前的题材,而不是当下的热点。AI概念股一路冲天。我们先看到了黄金开启上涨行情,随后白银更是暴涨失控。”

免责声明:本网站提供的信息仅供教育和参考之用,不应视为财务或投资建议。

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