Crypto bulls brace for rout as Fed reacts to weak jobs data

Bitcoin and Ether are clawing higher as traders bet the Federal Reserve’s looming rate cut will unleash a fresh bullish wave. This aligns with the US labor market struggling with slowing economic growth. Even though the cumulative crypto market cap dropped marginally, BTC hovers around $115K.

Analysts suggest that futures markets are pricing a 96% chance of a 25 basis point cut and a small possibility of a surprise half-point move. The digital assets market awaits the decision as BTC’s seven-day call/put skew saw a recovery to go flat from a negative 4%. This signals fewer bets on a sharp drop. However, Ethereum dipped by 2% but remains in the range of $4,600.

BTC hits $115K as crypto market awaits Fed updates 

“All eyes are on this Wednesday’s FOMC,” Emir Ibrahim, Analyst at Zerocap, noted, pointing to futures markets with 3-4% hoping for a surprise 50 bp move. This reflects the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ massive job revision, erasing 900,000 jobs from prior tallies. Softer non-farm payroll reports for the past four months are another factor asking for the cut. At the same time, headline inflation came up 2.9% year-over-year in August.

Bitcoin is running up by 3% over the last days, while the altcoin season gains momentum. BTC is trading at an average price of $115,025 at press time. Its 24-hour trading volume jumped 43% to hit $45 billion. This signals that traders are moving their funds.

The biggest altcoin, Ether, posted 78% gains over the past 90 days. ETH is trading at an average price of $4,533 at press time.

Solana remains an outlier of interest with constructive price action fueling talk of a potential digital asset treasury, added Ibrahim. Solana price has spiked by 28% over the last 30 days to regain $236 mark.

The analyst noted that if risk assets strive to perform, then it sets up a constructive outlook for the market in Q4. Total value locked is trending higher, stablecoin issuance has hit new highs, and capital is rotating into high-activity chains. 

Markets have priced in not only a cut this week, but a series of reductions ahead in 2026. The Fed is under pressure to balance its dual mandate, and traders expect Powell to deliver the first step on Wednesday. Since 2021, Powell has used inflation control as cover, and a more cautious tone from here could stall the current rally.

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