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金价预测:随着收益率回落,黄金/美元升至4400美元

FXStreet2026年9月18日 09:41
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  • 黄金连续第二个交易日延续涨势,本周转为上涨
  • 美国国债收益率的温和回落抵消了美联储鹰派加息的负面影响。
  • 黄金/美元可能在 4500 美元上方面临显著阻力

周五,黄金(XAU/USD)连续第二个交易日延续涨势,因为美国国债收益率的回落抵消了美联储(Fed)本周早些时候实施鹰派加息带来的负面影响。这种贵金属已反弹至 4400 美元区域的时段高点,此前本周早些时候曾从 4250 美元下方的一个半月低点反弹,目标是结束连续三周的下跌走势。  

美联储周三将利率上调 25 个基点至 3.75-4% 区间,主席 Kevin Warsh 重申了该行抗击通胀的承诺。这些言论提振了市场对未来几个月进一步加息的预期,但也恢复了市场对美联储独立性的信心,推动长期美债收益率回落,并为无收益的黄金提供了新的支撑。


技术分析:关键阻力位在 4500 美元上方

XAU/USD Chart Analysis


黄金/美元本周收复了部分失地,缓解了上周出现的看跌压力,但其仍未完全摆脱困境,因为它仍位于 200 日简单移动平均线(SMA)下方。日线图上的相对强弱指数(RSI)位于中性水平略上方,暗示动能正在趋于稳定,尽管移动平均收敛/发散指标(MACD)仍处于负值区域,这表明上行尝试依然脆弱。

黄金多头可能会在 4450 美元区域前遇到阻力,该区域曾在 9 月 8 日、9 日和 10 日阻止金价反弹。不过,关键阻力位位于 9 月 3 日高点 4510 美元与前述 200 日 SMA 4541 美元之间的区域。

下行方面,若出现看跌反转,时段低点 4335 美元区域可能提供一定支撑,随后是 8 月 6 日和 9 月 16 日低点构成的关键支撑区域,分别位于 4223 美元和 4235 美元。

(本故事的技术分析由 AI 工具协助撰写。 了解更多。

黄金常见问题(FAQ)

黄金在人类历史上发挥了关键作用,因为它被广泛用作价值储存和交换媒介。目前,除了它的光泽和用于珠宝之外,黄金还被广泛视为避险资产,这意味着它被认为是动荡时期的一项不错的投资。黄金还被广泛视为对冲通胀和货币贬值的工具,因为它不依赖于任何特定的发行方或政府。

各国央行是最大的黄金持有者。为了在动荡时期支撑本国货币,各国央行倾向于使储备多样化,并购买黄金,以提高人们对经济和货币实力的看法。高黄金储备可以成为一个国家偿付能力的信任来源。根据世界黄金协会的数据,各国央行在2022年增加了1136吨黄金储备,价值约700亿美元。这是有记录以来最高的年度购买量。中国、印度和土耳其等新兴经济体的央行正在迅速增加黄金储备。

黄金与美元和美国国债呈负相关,两者都是主要的储备资产和避险资产。当美元贬值时,黄金往往会上涨,使投资者和央行能够在动荡时期实现资产多元化。黄金与风险资产也呈负相关。股市的反弹往往会压低金价,而风险较高的市场的抛售往往有利于黄金。

由于各种各样的因素,价格可能会变动。地缘政治不稳定或对深度衰退的担忧可能会迅速推高黄金价格,因其避险地位。作为一种低收益资产,黄金往往会随着利率下降而上涨,而较高的资金成本通常会拖累黄金。尽管如此,由于资产以美元(XAU/USD)定价,大多数走势取决于美元(USD)的表现。强势美元倾向于控制金价,而弱势美元则可能推高金价。

免责声明:本网站提供的信息仅供教育和参考之用,不应视为财务或投资建议。

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