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金价大跌15%后抄底时机到了?巴克莱:四大利好正在酝酿黄金反弹

FX1682026年3月27日 00:53
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FX168财经报社(北美)讯 在经历一轮明显回调后,黄金市场正出现新的分歧信号。一方面,巴克莱认为当前金价已具备“逢低布局”的吸引力;另一方面,也有分析人士指出,黄金短期仍面临利率和流动性压力,其避险属性暂未恢复。随着金价较高点回落约15%,市场正围绕“抄底是否合适”展开新一轮博弈。

巴克莱:金价回调提供“合理入场点”

巴克莱策略师Ajay Rajadhyaksha在最新报告中表示,当前黄金市场的回调,可能为投资者提供一个具有吸引力的布局机会。

他指出:“我们认为,这为投资者提供了一个相对合理的入场点。”

在他看来,市场在短期波动中忽视了支撑黄金的几个核心因素,这些因素依然构成中长期利多逻辑。

Rajadhyaksha认为,黄金仍具备多重结构性支撑:

首先,全球央行持续购金。自2022年以来,各国央行对黄金的需求显著上升,这一趋势预计不会轻易逆转。

其次,西方财政状况持续恶化。高赤字环境意味着货币体系长期面临压力,这对黄金构成支撑。

第三,通胀问题仍未解决。美联储已连续四年未能实现2%的通胀目标,而该机构预计2026年也不太可能出现加息。

最后,地缘政治与能源冲击。中东冲突推高油价,叠加财政支出扩张与不确定性上升,均强化黄金作为组合尾部对冲资产的价值。

他总结称,这些因素的叠加,将继续支撑黄金在投资组合中的配置地位。

金价大幅回调:一个月跌15%

尽管长期逻辑仍在,黄金近期表现却明显承压。

数据显示,黄金在2025年表现强劲,全年上涨约65%,创下46年来最佳年度表现,并在年底收于4300美元附近。进入2026年后,金价在2月初一度触及5608美元的历史高点,并在3月初仍维持在5100美元附近。

然而,过去30天内,黄金价格累计下跌约15%,周四(3月26日)美市盘中跌至4400美元下方。

这一快速回调,也使市场开始重新评估黄金的短期走势与配置价值。

为何避险失效?利率与流动性成为关键压制

值得注意的是,本轮金价下跌出现在地缘政治风险明显上升的背景下,这与黄金传统避险逻辑形成反差。

Sevens Report Research创始人Tom Essaye指出,黄金近期“完全不像避险资产”。

他认为,背后主要有两个原因:一是通胀预期因油价飙升而快速上行。在此背景下,美联储已释放信号,短期内降息基本无望,高利率环境压制黄金吸引力。二是流动性压力上升。随着全球股市承压,机构投资者被迫抛售此前盈利较多的资产(如黄金),以应对保证金和组合损失,这也对金价形成直接打击。

换言之,在当前环境下,黄金更多受到“利率+流动性”的主导,而非单纯的避险需求。

华尔街观点分化:多头看结构,空头看短期

在投资策略上,市场已出现明显分歧。

巴克莱等机构更偏向从长期结构性逻辑出发,认为当前回调是布局机会。

但Essaye则持更谨慎态度。他直言:“现在不会考虑配置黄金。”

在他看来,上述压制因素在短期内仍将持续存在,因此黄金缺乏立即反弹的条件。

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