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特朗普一句话引爆乐观情绪!黄金连涨两日 高盛坚定看多至5400美元

FX1682026年3月26日 00:40
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FX168财经报社(北美)讯 周三(3月25日),黄金价格明显走高,国际油价回落成为推动金价反弹的重要因素之一。市场普遍认为,能源价格降温有助于缓解通胀压力,从而减轻美联储长期维持高利率的预期压力,这对黄金构成支撑。

数据显示,现货黄金收盘上涨31.26美元,涨幅0.70%,至4507.94美元/盎司。

(图源:FX168)

近期,油价持续高企曾令市场担忧全球通胀压力可能再度升温,并打乱主要央行的宽松预期。不过,周三国际原油价格出现明显回落,缓和了投资者对通胀顽固性的担忧,也为黄金反弹创造了条件。

当天,国际基准布伦特原油期货下跌约5%,至99.13美元/桶;美国西得州中质原油(WTI)期货下跌约4%,至88.42美元/桶。

与此同时,美元指数在亚洲早盘下跌0.17%。由于黄金以美元计价,美元走弱也进一步提升了黄金对海外买家的吸引力。

特朗普称美伊“正在谈判”,中东局势现缓和信号

推动市场情绪改善的另一关键因素,是有关中东局势可能缓和的消息。

美国总统特朗普周二表示,美国与伊朗“目前正在进行谈判”,并暗示德黑兰有意达成和平协议。特朗普在白宫椭圆形办公室表示,他之所以暂缓此前针对伊朗能源基础设施发动打击的威胁,“是基于我们正在谈判这一事实”。

他还表示:“他们正在与我们对话,而且表现得很理性。”

不过,伊朗方面并未证实这一说法。路透社报道称,伊朗军方首席发言人否认双方正在进行谈判,并在国家电视台上强硬表态称,伊朗不会与美国达成协议。

尽管双方表态仍明显对立,但市场已经开始交易“冲突存在缓和可能性”的预期,这也在一定程度上打压了此前因霍尔木兹海峡风险而大涨的油价。

伊朗就霍尔木兹海峡表态,市场关注能源运输风险

隔夜,德黑兰方面确认,将允许“非敌对”船只通过霍尔木兹海峡。这一表态被视为中东能源运输风险边际缓和的信号。

伊朗政府在社交平台X上发布声明称,属于或关联其他国家的“非敌对”船只,只要不参与或协助针对伊朗的攻击行动,并遵守已公布的安全规定和措施,便可在与伊朗有关主管部门协调后安全通过霍尔木兹海峡。

作为全球关键的原油运输通道,霍尔木兹海峡一旦受阻,将对全球能源市场造成重大冲击。自战争爆发近四周以来,围绕这条水道的封锁风险已持续推高国际能源价格。如今伊朗释放部分通行信号,令市场对最坏情形的担忧有所降温。

高盛:金价回调符合历史规律,长期仍维持看多判断

尽管周三黄金明显反弹,但从整体走势来看,金价目前仍较1月下旬高点低约17%。

对于此前金价自高位回落的原因,高盛表示,这基本符合历史模式。该行指出,利率预期上升及市场波动加剧,是压制黄金表现的主要原因。

高盛全球大宗商品研究联席主管Daan Struyven周三表示,从既有定价框架来看,近期黄金下跌并不令人意外。他指出,随着利率预期上升,投资者需求受到抑制,尤其是黄金ETF的资金流向对利率变化非常敏感。

他还提到,在极端市场压力时期,黄金也可能与其他资产一道遭遇抛售,因为面临追加保证金压力的投资者往往会卖出黄金以换取流动性。

此外,Struyven认为,黄金此前一轮上涨在一定程度上已偏离基本面,因此近期修正也反映出市场的一种“正常化”过程。

不过,高盛并未改变其中长期看多判断。该行仍预计,到今年年底,黄金价格有望升至5400美元。其背后的核心逻辑在于,随着各国持续寻求配置“地缘政治和金融风险更低”的资产,全球央行买盘仍将构成长期支撑。

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