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【黄金收评】黄金又遭抛售!金价一度重挫至四周低点 接下来如何交易?

FX1682026年3月17日 00:53
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24K99讯 周一(3月16日),现货黄金价格收盘下跌,中东冲突带来的通胀升温疑虑,可能让利率保持在高点更长一段时间,让黄金走软。不过,美元回落,加之避险需求仍在,帮助金价缩减日内跌幅。

现货黄金周一收盘下跌0.27%,报5006.19美元/盎司。金价盘中最低跌至4970.38美元/盎司,为2月19日以来低点。

知名财经网站FXStreet指出,黄金周一遭遇额外抛压,盘中一度跌破5000美元/盎司这一关键关口,触及四周低点。由于能源价格上涨加剧了通胀担忧,降低了市场对美联储及其他主要央行继续推进降息的预期,黄金这类不生息资产仍承受压力。

在中东紧张局势升级的背景下,美国与以色列针对伊朗的战争进入第三周,油价仍维持在100美元/桶上方。市场担心原油价格飙升将推高通胀,从而削弱近期降息的预期。这反过来可能对黄金这类不生息资产形成一定的抛售压力。

RJO Futures高级市场策略师Bob Haberkorn表示:“油价上涨将推高通胀。如果通胀确实上升,各国央行降息的意愿将不如六个月前那么强烈,这对金价是不利的。”

Haberkorn补充道:“但鉴于全球局势,我依然非常看好黄金。目前仍有大量资金在场外观望,等着进入这个市场,我依然看好金价将达到6000美元。”

黄金通常被视为规避通胀和不确定性的工具,但在高利率环境下往往表现不佳,因为这代表持有黄金这种不生息资产的机会成本会上升。

美元回落 限制金价跌幅

美元周一从10个月高点回落,使以美元计价的黄金对持有其他货币的投资人而言更具吸引力。

追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数(DXY)下跌0.5%,报99.86。

自伊朗冲突爆发以来,美元指数已上涨2.8%,并在上周五突破关键的100整数关口。

Trade Nation资深市场分析师David Morrison周一表示:“美元今早全面走弱,主要是在上周大涨后出现喘息。上周美元指数成功突破100.00的重要阻力位,而在去年11月时,这个水平看起来几乎难以跨越。”

聚焦本周美联储决议

本周市场关注美联储政策决议、主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会,美国生产者物价指数(PPI)以及每周初请失业金人数等数据。

市场预计美联储将维持利率不变。自上次会议以来的经济数据显示,经济基本面的展望变化不大,且美联储正处于向过渡到新任主席瓦尔许的阶段。

FXStreet分析师Lallalit Srijandorn表示,随着市场对美联储今年降息的希望逐渐减弱,贵金属延续跌势。市场的焦点将集中在周三晚些时候公布的美联储利率决议上。

市场普遍预计,美联储将在周三的3月货币政策会议上将基准联邦基金利率维持在当前3.50%-3.75%的区间不变。分析师认为,美联储可能会在2026年再次降息,但降息的次数和幅度仍有待观察。

根据芝商所(CME)的“美联储观察”工具,联邦基金期货市场的交易员甚至已经将9月降息的可能性排除在外,目前只预计今年12月会有一次降息。

黄金交易分析:短线关注4970美元支撑,跌破或进一步下探

从技术面来看,黄金短线走势明显转弱。日线图显示,金价一度跌破5000美元/盎司这一关键整数关口,目前在这一关口附近徘徊;同时金价运行在主要短期均线下方,动能指标也出现回落迹象,表明短期空头仍占据主导。

目前金价下方首个重要支撑位于4970美元/盎司附近,这也是周一盘中低点所在区域。一旦该水平被有效跌破,金价可能进一步下探4950美元/盎司甚至4900美元/盎司区域。若空头动能进一步增强,不排除测试2月低点附近支撑的可能。

上行方面,若金价反弹并稳定在5000美元/盎司水平上方,上方进一步阻力将位于5030美元/盎司和5050美元/盎司附近,只有突破并企稳5050美元/盎司,短线跌势才可能得到缓解。

整体来看,在美联储利率决议公布前,市场情绪仍偏谨慎,黄金短线可能维持震荡偏弱格局。交易策略上,部分分析师建议投资者关注反弹后的做空机会,并留意关键支撑位的突破情况,以判断下一步走势方向。

免责声明:本网站提供的信息仅供教育和参考之用,不应视为财务或投资建议。

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