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伊朗冲突下油价狂飙,黄金震荡:金价恐连续第二周下跌 接下来如何交易?

FX1682026年3月13日 03:52
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周五(3月13日)亚市盘中,黄金价格有所反弹,但由于中东战争使油价维持在约100美元/桶,黄金仍有可能连续第二周下跌。

在连续两天下跌后,现货黄金回升至5100美元/盎司以上,部分收复失地,原因是美元企稳,而原油在创下自2022年8月以来的最高收盘价后出现波动。白宫批准买家接收已在海上的俄罗斯石油货物,此举旨在缓解价格压力。

然而,从周线来看,黄金价格仍可能下跌约1%。如果成真,这将是自去年11月以来,黄金首次连续两周下跌。自美以与伊朗战争近两周前爆发以来,黄金的上涨势头已停滞,且短期内没有解决迹象。

(截图来源:彭博社)

美国总统特朗普(Donald Trump)和伊朗新任最高领袖穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊(Mojtaba Khamenei)周四发表强硬言论,这场冲突已持续13天,实际上阻断了霍尔木兹海峡的航运,并给全球石油市场造成了有史以来最大的冲击。

布伦特原油价格在经历了一周的剧烈波动后,周五出现震荡;美元指数在前一交易日上涨0.5%后小幅下跌。

油价飙升与黄金市场承压

对黄金而言,能源价格上涨和通胀担忧加剧,已大幅降低市场对美联储及其他央行降息的预期。最新的美国失业救济申请报告显示新申请人数仍然偏低,也减少降息的可能性。

周四,美国国债大幅下跌,使短期收益率升至自去年8月以来的最高水平。交易员现在几乎认为下周美联储会议降息的可能性为零,而今年降息的可能性仅为70%。较高的借贷成本通常对贵金属不利,因为贵金属本身不支付利息。

冲突持续与供应风险

持续的冲突削弱了投资者对黄金的兴趣,市场出现震荡交易,取代了长期的上涨行情,投资者为了补充其投资组合其他部分的保证金而抛售黄金。然而,金价今年迄今仍上涨约18%,并基本保持在5000美元/盎司以上的水平。

如果冲突持续——且原油价格持续高企——将给黄金带来进一步压力。国际能源署(IEA)周四表示,这场战争正在对石油市场造成前所未有的供应中断,而就在前一天,其成员国同意从紧急储备中释放创纪录的4亿桶原油。

技术面分析

从技术图表来看:

支撑位:近期约5050美元/盎司至5000美元/盎司附近构成关键支撑,如果跌破,金价短期可能测试4950美元/盎司。

阻力位:当前黄金价格在5100-5150美元/盎司区间遇到阻力,如突破则可能挑战5200美元/盎司。

趋势与指标:短期均线(如10日、20日均线)显示震荡下行,但中长期均线(50日、100日均线)仍呈上行趋势,说明整体多头基础仍在。RSI指标在40-50区间徘徊,显示市场尚未超卖,但动能减弱。

交易策略建议

结合基本面与技术面,交易者可以参考以下策略:

短线操作

1.在支撑位附近(5000-5050美元/盎司)关注短期多单机会,止损设在4950美元/盎司以下。

2.在阻力位附近(5100-5150美元/盎司)可尝试短线做空,止损设在5200美元/盎司上方。

中长期策略

1.若冲突升级、油价进一步走高,可考虑逢低布局中长期多单,持有至关键阻力位或市场风险缓解。

2.若地缘局势缓和、美元反弹或美联储意外降息预期增强,则谨慎减仓黄金,关注其他避险资产如白银或国债。

风险管理

1.黄金波动受地缘政治影响大,建议单笔仓位控制在总资金的10%-20%以内。

2.设置严格止损并关注原油和美元指数的变化,因其与黄金价格高度相关。

北京时间11:38,现货黄金报5108.42美元/盎司。

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