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历史性一周!原油狂飙35%创史上最大涨幅 能源危机一触即发?

FX1682026年3月7日 01:59
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FX168财经报社(北美)讯 随着中东战火持续升级、霍尔木兹海峡能源运输几近停滞,国际油价本周大幅飙升。美国原油期货录得自1983年合约推出以来最大单周涨幅,市场正从单纯计入地缘政治风险,转向担忧真实供应中断可能对全球能源市场和世界经济造成更深冲击。

周五(3月6日)美市尾盘,美国WTI原油期货大涨12.21%,上涨9.89美元,收于90.90美元/。全球基准布伦特原油上涨8.52%,上涨7.28美元,报92.69美元/

(图源:CNBC)

美国原油本周累计飙升35.63%,创下自1983年该期货合约推出以来的最大单周涨幅。布伦特原油本周累计上涨约28%,创下自2020年4月以来最大单周涨幅。

美国总统特朗普周五要求伊朗“无条件投降”,这加剧了市场对战争长期化的担忧,并引发外界对全球油气市场可能遭受严重冲击的恐慌。当前,作为全球能源供应关键运输通道的霍尔木兹海峡,航运已几近停摆。#伊朗危机追踪#

卡塔尔能源大臣萨阿德·卡比(Saad al-Kaabi)周五对英国《金融时报》表示,如果油轮无法通过霍尔木兹海峡,未来几周原油价格可能升至150美元/桶。

卡比警告称,这种情况可能“拖垮世界经济”。

他还对《金融时报》表示:“所有尚未宣布不可抗力的人,我们预计如果这种局面继续下去,他们将在未来几天内这样做。海湾地区所有出口国都必须宣布不可抗力。如果他们不这么做,那么在某个时点,他们将在法律上为此承担责任——当然,这是他们自己的选择。”

特朗普政府周五宣布推出一项规模达200亿美元的波斯湾油轮保险计划,但这一举措并未能有效平息原油市场的紧张情绪。

两名伊拉克官员周二对路透表示,伊拉克已经关闭了150万桶/日的原油产量。另据《华尔街日报》周五援引知情人士消息称,科威特也已开始减产,原因是储油空间已经耗尽。

据外媒报道,船舶追踪数据显示,目前波斯湾地区可供储油的中东主要产油国油轮数量正迅速减少,仅剩9艘空载的超大型油轮。一旦这些油轮被装满,陆上储油罐将迅速填满,从而导致更多油田停产。每艘超大型油轮可装载约200万桶原油,仅相当于沙特全国约5小时产量。目前,伊朗已兑现其威胁,用无人机和导弹袭击了霍尔木兹海峡的多艘船只。沙特和阿联酋是仅有的两个能够借助管道将原油分流、避开霍尔木兹海峡的地区产油国。这两个国家一直在增加从该地区以外终端的出口量,但两国都没有完全避开该水道的运力。

摩根大通全球大宗商品研究主管Natasha Kaneva在周五发给客户的一份报告中表示:“市场正在从单纯计入地缘政治风险,转向应对实实在在的运营中断。”

Kaneva称,如果霍尔木兹海峡到下周末仍未恢复通航,减产规模可能接近600万桶/日。摩根大通预计,阿联酋下周也将出现供应受限情况。

根据美国汽车协会(AAA)的数据,截至周四的一周内,美国普通汽油平均价格上涨近27美分,升至3.25美元/加仑。

周五,伊朗与美国之间的战争进入第七天。美国国防部长赫格塞斯周四在新闻发布会上表示,美国“才刚刚开始战斗”。

他对记者称:“伊朗希望我们无法持续下去,这是一个非常严重的误判。”

当地时间周五晚,伊朗陆军公共关系部发布消息称,当晚伊朗陆军、海军导弹系统向美军“林肯”号航空母舰发射了一枚岸对海导弹。‌‌

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