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桥水创始人达利欧谈:为什么比特币永远无法取代黄金

FX1682026年3月5日 06:56
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FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 桥水基金(Bridgewater Associates)创始人、亿万富翁投资者瑞·达利欧(Ray Dalio)阐述了他为何认为,比特币不太可能取代黄金,成为全球占主导地位的“替代性货币”。

(截图来源:Finbold)

达利欧在3月3日发布的《All-In》播客节目中表示,尽管比特币近来增长迅速,但黄金这种贵金属——近期也出现了显著上涨——在全球金融体系中仍然具有独特地位。

达利欧将自己的观点建立在他所谓的“大战略周期”(Big Cycle)框架之上,强调黄金在货币历史以及各国央行储备中所扮演的结构性角色。

他承认比特币的影响力正在上升,但认为其结构性限制使其无法取代黄金。

达利欧说:“我认为外界对比特币投入了大量关注,但作为一种货币,它相对黄金而言规模很小。<…> 黄金只有一种。”

他表示,各国央行不太可能将其作为储备资产持有,这会限制机构层面的采用;同时他还指出了多项担忧,包括交易可追溯性、监管审查、量子计算等技术风险,以及其市场规模相对较小、因此更容易被影响和操纵。

比特币的风险资产属性

达利欧还提到,比特币与科技股的相关性很高,这表明它的表现更像一种风险资产,而非稳定的价值储存工具。

他补充道:“因此,从持有的角度来看,如果有人在某个领域遭遇挤压,不得不抛售,他们所持有的其他资产的供需也会受到影响。”

相比之下,黄金的规模、历史以及各国央行的广泛持有,支撑着其信誉和稳定性,使其成为货币和地缘政治不确定时期唯一被全球认可的储备货币。

达利欧指出,黄金并非仅仅是一种投机性金属,而是最成熟的替代货币形式。

根据达利欧,理解货币的运作机制至关重要。他指出,大多数现代货币都是以债务为基础的,这意味着现金或金融资产的持有者实际上是持有政府或机构提供的购买力承诺。

达利欧认为,黄金之所以与众不同,在于它不依赖任何交易对手的信用承诺,也无法被随意“印出来”。同时,黄金还同时满足货币的两项核心功能:既是交换媒介,也是价值储藏工具。

更关键的是,黄金可以在国家之间以及央行之间转移,用于清偿债务义务——这是房地产等固定资产无法做到的。黄金悠久的历史与有限的供给进一步巩固了其作为中立储备资产的地位。

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