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彭博首席大宗商品分析师最新警告:黄金的这轮涨势已经结束!

FX1682026年3月4日 06:16
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24K99讯 自2022年初以来,黄金迎来一轮几乎前所未有的上涨,截至3月3日,金价已累计飙升161%,报5151美元/盎司。

多位专家指出,这种惊人的涨幅在很大程度上由高企的地缘政治不稳定所推动,而这一不稳定在2022年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后被进一步放大并凸显。

(黄金价格5年走势图 来源:TradingView)

不过,彭博首席大宗商品分析师迈克·麦格隆(Mike McGlone)在近期一则X帖文及分析中表示,这轮黄金牛市可能已接近尾声;黄金最新的高位价格很可能意味着未来数年的阶段性峰值。

(截图来源:Finbold)

今年以来,金价已上涨约20%——并在1月下旬触及5595美元/盎司上方的历史新高——持续的地缘政治与贸易紧张局势,以及对美联储独立性的担忧,共同支撑了黄金需求。

为什么这位大宗商品专家称“黄金的支柱正在崩塌”

具体而言,麦格隆认同一种观点:2020年代初的黄金热潮主要是由来自美国对手的压力与不稳定局势推动的。事实上,由于黄金具有“避险资产”的属性,散户投资者以及包括各国央行在内的机构投资者都在争相买入这种商品。

不过,麦格隆指出,近年来美国在地缘政治上取得了多项胜利,其中尤以叙利亚的阿萨德政权和委内瑞拉的马杜罗政权被移除最为关键。

因此,这位顶级大宗商品策略师表示,如果美国对伊朗的行动最终以政权更迭,或出现类似委内瑞拉那样的政治软化局面收场,那么近年来推动金价上涨的地缘政治不稳定因素可能会迅速消散。

麦格隆写道:“黄金的支柱正在崩塌?伊朗引发的原油飙升可能反而促使黄金被抛售——叙利亚、委内瑞拉以及伊朗等反美领导人的被清除,可能标志着黄金地缘政治买盘的终局,而这一买盘最初是由俄罗斯在2022年攻击乌克兰所引发的。”

随着金价上涨结束,原油和白银的涨势也可能告一段落

在同一份分析中,这位专家还谈到原油和白银等其他资产,并基本重申相同的观点。

总体而言,国际局势不稳定性的下降可能会使市场趋于稳定,这意味着近期几天和几周里,原油和白银创下的高位可能会成为未来数年的阶段性高点。

麦格隆表示:“布伦特原油接近80美元/桶,可能与白银达到100美元/盎司一起成为2026年的高点,这主要受到两个关键因素的推动:自相关效应(autocorrelation)以及股市波动率的小幅反弹。”

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