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伊朗释放能源市场“黑天鹅”!高盛警告:若现这一幕 欧洲天然气恐飙升130%

FX1682026年3月2日 01:32
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#伊朗危机追踪#FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)表示,如果霍尔木兹海峡的航运中断一个月,欧洲天然气价格可能上涨至原来的两倍以上。

(截图来源:彭博社)

包括Daan Struyven在内的高盛分析师团队在3月1日的一份报告中指出,欧洲和亚洲的基准天然气价格几乎尚未计入与伊朗相关的风险溢价。

全球约五分之一的液化天然气(LNG)需通过这一战略咽喉要道运输,其中主要来自卡塔尔。

高盛报告称,若运输中断一个月,欧洲天然气价格以及亚洲现货LNG价格可能飙升130%,达到每百万英热单位25美元。

美以袭击伊朗后,伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队2月28日当晚宣布,禁止任何船只通过霍尔木兹海峡,实际上将海峡关闭。

国际油轮交通监测系统实时数据显示,霍尔木兹海峡周边海域油轮航行速度普遍降至零,大量船只停航避险。

这条全球能源运输的“咽喉要道”停运后,导致国际原油期货大幅上涨。分析认为,不排除国际油价突破100美元/桶。

周一亚市盘初,美国原油飙升逾7%,即上涨5.08美元,报72.10美元/桶。全球基准布伦特原油飙升约8%,即上涨5.91美元,至78.78美元/桶。

英国《金融时报》从经纪商处获悉,保险公司已向途经这一关键石油咽喉要道的船舶发出保单取消通知,未来几天保费预计最高上涨50%。

高盛分析师表示:“如果通过霍尔木兹海峡的天然气供应运输中断时间超过两个月,欧洲天然气价格可能升至每兆瓦时100欧元以上(约合35美元/百万英热单位),从而引发更为显著的全球天然气需求破坏。”

(图片来源:彭博社)

不过,高盛认为,对美国天然气市场的影响可能较为有限。

美国是液化天然气的主要净出口国,且液化设施通常已满负荷运行,几乎没有额外空间增加出口量。

来自油轮追踪机构的卫星图像显示,多艘船只在阿联酋富查伊拉等大型港口附近滞留,没有穿越霍尔木兹海峡。

船舶经纪公司Poten & Partners在致客户的报告中称,通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只通行并未完全停止,但干扰正迅速加剧。

霍尔木兹海峡是全球能源运输的“咽喉要道”,日均运输原油约2000万桶,占据全球海运石油总量的20%。

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