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摩根士丹利策略师“语出惊人”:这一最像黄金的避险货币可能飙升17%!

FX1682026年2月24日 06:53
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FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 顶尖投行摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的策略师表示,随着人们对瑞士法郎避险地位的信心增长,在美国政策不确定性下,瑞郎可能兑美元上涨多达17%。

(截图来源:彭博社)

由大卫·亚当斯(David Adams)领导的大摩策略师团队在一份报告中写道,瑞士的低通胀、财政稳健以及资产安全,使得瑞郎“堪称最接近黄金的避险货币”。

他们表示,在乐观情景下,瑞郎汇率可能升至1美元兑0.64瑞郎的历史新高,而美元/瑞郎周一的交易价约为0.776。

亚当斯表示:“瑞郎是一个被忽视且未被充分重视的避险资产,看起来将比投资者预期或市场定价的更快、更大幅度地升值。”

他补充道,这种货币是“最经得起考验的”避险资产,并且在市场冲击期间有着最好的表现记录。

这一观点出现在对冲基金也在押注瑞郎走强的背景下。根据最新的美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)每周数据,杠杆基金(包括这些基金和其他投机者)目前持有瑞郎自6月以来最大净多头头寸,且比一周前从净空头转为净多头。

(截图来源:彭博社)

上个月,瑞郎升至十多年来兑欧元和美元的最强水平。投资者被瑞士的适度债务、稳定的经济和可预测的政策所吸引,这些特点成为美国政策制定混乱以及日益增长的地缘政治风险的对比。

虽然瑞郎走强增加了瑞士央行可能介入市场以削弱货币、遏制国内通货紧缩压力的风险,但越来越多的经济学家承认,货币当局目前似乎不太愿意对抗其升值。

摩根士丹利预计瑞郎将继续兑其他货币升值,并预测瑞郎兑欧元将从目前约0.91上涨5%,达到0.87。

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