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“金价暴跌不要怕”!40年大宗商品交易老将指出买入黄金的最佳时机

FX1682026年2月4日 01:22
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24K99讯 拥有40多年大宗商品与期货交易经验的资深交易员彼得·布兰特(Peter Brandt)表示,近期黄金的回调正在创造一个颇具吸引力的长期买入机会。

(截图来源:Finbold)

值得注意的是,受地缘政治风险上升、通胀担忧以及各国央行持续买入等因素推动,避险需求走强,黄金在2026年初大幅飙升。

但这波陡峭且持续时间较长的涨势随后出现回调,进一步印证了布兰特的观点:在价格“垂直拉升”之后,投资者应避免追涨、不要在动能最强时贸然接盘。

黄金价格历经前两日的剧烈抛售,周二(2月3日)在逢低买盘的支撑下惊人反弹,金价创下2008年11月以来最强单日表现,显示基本面依然向好。

现货黄金周二收盘暴涨285.10美元,涨幅6.12%,报4946.01美元/盎司。金价周一曾跌至接近四周低点4402美元/盎司。

自2026年初以来,金价累计上涨约15%。

(黄金价格走势图来源:TradingView)

布兰特在2月1日发布于X的帖子中表示,尽管经历抛售,黄金更广泛的上升趋势仍然完好无损。黄金仍在自2025年年中开启的、持续数月的上升通道内运行,金价守在长期趋势支撑位以及关键移动均线之上。

他认为此次回调是对超买状态的一次“降温重置”,而非牛市行情的破位崩盘。

布兰特认为,4500美元/盎司下方的风险回报比最具吸引力,因为该区域汇聚了此前的阻力位、通道支撑以及多条移动均线。尽管不排除更深的回撤、向4000-3700美元/盎司区间下探的可能,但他认为在当前主导趋势强势的背景下,要触及这些水平难度更大。

(图片来源:Finbold)

值得注意的是,自1月高点以来,黄金的上涨动能已明显降温,使得投机性过热得以逐步消化,同时并未破坏黄金的基础看涨结构。在以往的牛市周期中,类似的“降温重置”往往会在随后带来新一轮涨势。

布兰特将黄金视为长期财富配置,强调耐心胜过短线交易。他认为,在债务攀升、货币贬值风险以及各国央行持续买入等宏观利好仍然存在的情况下,回调相比在周期高位附近追买,是更健康的入场机会;并将近期下跌定位为强劲长期牛市中的一次正常化调整。

黄金长期看涨

这一形态进一步强化了布兰特对黄金的长期看涨观点。他在2026年1月曾表示,若本轮牛市周期遵循历史规律,黄金价格可能升至8000美元/盎司,并指出此类周期往往会带来数倍涨幅。

布兰特的立场也与市场整体乐观情绪相一致。

摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)预计,黄金在2026年第四季度的平均价格将达到5055美元/盎司,并认为在各国央行持续买入的推动下,上行空间可至6300美元/盎司。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)已将其2026年底金价目标价上调至5400美元/盎司。

瑞银(UBS)和德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)则认为,在ETF资金流入、实物需求以及财政不确定性等因素支撑下,黄金有望达到6000-6200美元/盎司区间。

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