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史诗级暴跌!黄金白银三天蒸发8万亿美元,这场“血洗”背后发生了什么?

FX1682026年2月3日 05:34
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24K99讯 知名财经网站Finbold周一(2月2日)撰文称,两大传统“避险”资产——黄金和白银——在2026年初曾一路飙升、连续刷新历史新高后,于1月下旬至2月初遭遇了一场猛烈的抛售潮。

这两种贵金属在短短三天内合计蒸发了约8万亿美元的市值,价格跌至周一发稿时水平:黄金为4,533美元/盎司,白银为77美元/盎司。

(截图来源:Finbold)

其中,黄金约占此次大宗商品市值缩水的5.5万亿美元,因为目前地表以上黄金储量估计约为216,265吨。

(黄金一周价格走势图 来源:TradingView)

白银虽然跌幅更大,从约118美元/盎司下滑至77美元/盎司,但按全球白银储量约160万吨的估算,其市值蒸发规模约为2.5万亿美元。

(白银一周价格走势图 来源:TradingView)

不过,值得注意的是,上述两种商品的地上储量估算本身相对不可靠,这意味着实际损失规模可能会比估算值多出或少掉数万亿美元。

尽管黄金近1,000美元、白银30美元的暴跌——两者的跌幅都超过大宗商品通常一整年的波动幅度——本身已足够令人震惊,但更值得担忧的,或许是金融市场整体更广泛走势中所呈现出的那种模式。

黄金和白银暴跌对投资者意味着什么

黄金和白银这两种贵金属通常会在经济不确定性加剧时走强,因为它们被视为能够安全储存价值的资产;而在经济繁荣时期,它们往往会横盘或下跌,因为投资者会把财富转向增长潜力更高、风险更大的投资标的。

按这种传统逻辑来看,这本应对投资者和劳动者来说是个好消息,但问题在于,这两种对冲型大宗商品近来却与全球一些风险最高的资产保持着较高的相关性。

具体而言,近期交易中出现了比特币等加密货币、标普500这一基准股指,以及“避险”资产黄金和白银同时暴跌的情况。

这种走势不仅反常,而且也令人费解,因为目前很难轻易找到一个明确的下跌触发因素。

美联储是否是黄金和白银暴跌的幕后推手?

因此,看起来这场“血洗”背后很可能是多重因素共同作用的结果。或许导致此次下跌的最主要、最直接原因,可以追溯到美国总统特朗普(Donald Trump)选择凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)作为美联储主席鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)的继任者。

沃什的提名格外敏感,因为他的名字本身就进一步加剧了市场的不确定性。特朗普与鲍威尔之间的矛盾,很大程度上源于总统希望降息,并推动美联储采取更为鸽派的政策立场。

从历史来看,凯文·沃什一直被视为财政鹰派人物,反对美联储多项刺激市场的举措。

除了美联储内部的动荡之外,其他诸多因素也很可能在此次价格暴跌中发挥了作用。

美国政府在1月末进入了部分停摆状态。与此同时,新一批“爱泼斯坦档案”曝光,牵涉到多位政坛重量级人物和商界领袖,被指涉及一些令人极为不安的行为——尽管这些内容多为真实性尚不确定的指控。

全球紧张局势如何加剧市场不稳定

在外部环境方面,特朗普近期就“吞并格陵兰岛”发表新一轮强硬表态后,美国与其盟友之间的裂痕仍未弥合;此外,美国武装力量似乎正在集结,准备对伊朗发动攻击。

最后,或许与其他因素同样重要的一点是,投资者自身很可能也异常紧张、急于抛售。

由于风险偏好资产与避险资产同步下跌,引发对未来经济走向的深度不确定性。而这种不确定性以不同形式在多年间一直存在——尤其是在各类衰退指标持续发出警告的同时,市场却仍不断刷新多个历史新高。

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