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黄金又现恐怖行情!金价亚市一度崩跌307美元、银价巨震 中国投资者表现很关键

FX1682026年2月2日 05:41
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24K99讯 周一(2月2日)亚洲交易时段,继上一交易日出现十多年最大的暴跌之后,现货黄金价格再度狂泻。分析师指出,此前一场创纪录的上涨行情过度扩展,走得太远、太快。

现货黄金周一下跌最多达6.3%。白银则剧烈波动,曾一度跌至75.10美元/盎司,随后上涨最多3.2%,但再次回落。在前一个交易日,白银创下了有史以来最大的单日跌幅。

金价最低跌至4582.79美元/盎司,日内跌幅达到307美元。前摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase & Co.)贵金属交易员、现为独立市场评论员的Robert Gottlieb表示:“这还没有结束。”

(现货黄金60分钟图 来源:24K99)

Gottlieb补充道,市场参与者对进一步冒险的抵触将限制市场流动性,“我们得看看金价是否能找到支撑。最关键的是,黄金交易之前过于拥挤。”

贵金属价格曾飙升至创纪录的历史新高,甚至让经验丰富的交易员也感到震惊。在1月,已经非常火爆的上涨行情因投资者纷纷涌入黄金和白银而急剧加速,原因是地缘政治动荡、货币贬值和美联储独立性重新引发的担忧。来自中国投机者的一波买盘使得这一涨势更加泡沫化。

美国彭博社称,中国投资者在回调时是否继续买入,将在上周五的市场回撤后对市场走势起到关键作用。尽管上海基准价格在开盘后继续下跌,但仍高于国际价格。在周末,买家纷纷涌向深圳这一国内最大贵金属交易市场,准备在2月17日春节前囤积黄金珠宝和金条。

金瑞期货(Jinrui Futures Co)分析师吴子杰(Zijie Wu,音译)表示:“高度的市场波动性和临近春节将促使交易员减仓并降低风险。”他同时表示,尤其在旺季,价格回调可能会支持中国的零售需求。

上周五剧烈抛售的触发因素是美国总统特朗普(Donald Trump)将提名凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)领导美联储的消息,这使美元上涨,并打击了那些押注特朗普愿意让货币贬值的投资者情绪。交易员认为沃什是最终候选人中最强硬的通胀斗士,这提高了市场对货币政策的预期,认为这将支撑美元,并削弱以美元计价的贵金属价格。

但贵金属市场早已面临极端波动,因为飙升的价格和波动性使交易者的风险模型和资产负债表承受压力。

中国期货公司(China Futures Co.)分析师Wang Yanqing在一份报告中表示,银价的波动部分是由于中国热钱的涌入,导致国内供应紧张,但随着市场的下跌,这种情况可能会有所缓解,从而减少投资需求。

他表示:“一旦市场普遍预期的单边上涨趋势被打破,空头的交割意愿将增加,帮助缓解供应短缺。”

北京时间12:04,现货黄金报4614.38美元/盎司。

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